whore this, ubersucker

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Increasing the bet size, and increasing the risk of ruin INCREASES EV. The reason? You often bust out before the WR is completed, which means less wagering on a -EV game.

Example:
Say you have a 100+100 bonus, with a $1400 WR, which has to be played on a 3% house advantage game which either doubles you up on you lose, so it doubles you 48.5% of the time.

Bet small, with say 0% risk of ruin, your EV is $100 - $42 [loss due to the game] = $58 EV

Bet $200, $400, then $800, and you will cash out $1600:
0.485*0.485*0.485 = 11.4% of the time

1600 * 11.4% = $182.53. or $82.53 EV

Thus, in this case, you gain $24.53 EV by betting big. Note that the last $800 bet here didn't increase EV at all, since then we'd have busted with the WR completed. It was just for mathematical simplicity.

[kyleb]

[ QUOTE ]
Increasing the bet size, and increasing the risk of ruin INCREASES EV. The reason? You often bust out before the WR is completed, which means less wagering on a -EV game.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is not the specific reason that larger bet sizes are +EV. Gaining EV only when you bust out is a moot point and not a good reason to refute the arguments of larger bet sizes.

[WLVRYN]

We need to get Ed Miller's blackjack EV post from awhile back sticked here. It would save a lot of time arguing about this.

[kyleb]

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We need to get Ed Miller's blackjack EV post from awhile back sticked here. It would save a lot of time arguing about this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really - Ed Miller's post contains tens of hundreds of people trying to algebraically prove him wrong, which is not possible.

2+2'ers by and large cannot understand mathematics/probability if it cannot be explained to them in a simply algebraic formula. Of course, the reason for larger bet sizes increasing your Effective EV (EEV) is best described using simple precalculus and Pascal's Triangle, but that's probably asking a bit too much from the average forum dude.

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Increasing the bet size, and increasing the risk of ruin INCREASES EV. The reason? You often bust out before the WR is completed, which means less wagering on a -EV game.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is not the specific reason that larger bet sizes are +EV. Gaining EV only when you bust out is a moot point and not a good reason to refute the arguments of larger bet sizes.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are wrong. What I said is precisely the reason betting big is +EV, given that you are playing a -EV game. The only reason in my example that your EV is higher is because you only play the wagering requirement ~23% of the time.

Gaining EV when you bust out is not a moot point. What exactly do you disagree with about my example? It was quite simple.

[kyleb]

Ed Miller agrees with me, as does anyone who has taken statistics and/or probability. Your EEV increases with bet size.

If you are disagreeing with this fact, you need to take a higher-level math course or do a bit of research on that.

As for gaining EV when you bust out, my point is this: Who gives a [censored].

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[ QUOTE ]
Ed Miller agrees with me, as does anyone who has taken statistics and/or probability. Your EEV increases with bet size.

If you are disagreeing with this fact, you need to take a higher-level math course or do a bit of research on that.

As for gaining EV when you bust out, my point is this: Who gives a [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]
Firstly, stop speaking down to me. I have taken upper-level math and stats classes. So stop pulling this garbage as if you're God's gift to Stats.

Second, did you even read my post? The whole conclusion was that EV increases with bet size.

Ed Miller agrees with you? Only if you agree with me:
It's just the option to go bust and never finish your WR that changes things. - Ed Miller

[kyleb]

I would stop speaking down to you if you weren't condescending in the first place.

The idea that EV increase when you bust out is completely meaningless. Do you see why?

The real reason that EV increase with bet size has to do with the concepts I have mentioned several times in the forum and in this very thread. By concluding that EV increase when bet size increase only when you bust out is an incorrect conclusion. You are working towards the wrong goal if that is the way you are trying to prove the idea of larger bet sizes being more beneficial.

That is all.

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[ QUOTE ]
I would stop speaking down to you if you weren't condescending in the first place.

The idea that EV increase when you bust out is completely meaningless. Do you see why?

The real reason that EV increase with bet size has to do with the concepts I have mentioned several times in the forum and in this very thread. By concluding that EV increase when bet size increase only when you bust out is an incorrect conclusion. You are working towards the wrong goal if that is the way you are trying to prove the idea of larger bet sizes being more beneficial.

That is all.

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In my original statement, I stated, and you quoted
"Increasing the bet size, and increasing the risk of ruin INCREASES EV. The reason? You often bust out before the WR is completed, which means less wagering on a -EV game."

The gain in EV, in the long-term, is due, as my quote above says to less wagering on a -EV game. Explain where I stated that EV increases with bet size only when you bust out.

I stated EV increases with bet sizes when there is a possibility to bust out. In the long run, your EV is exactly (bonus $) - (EV lost during gameplay).

So to raise EV, you bet in a way in which you will, on average, wager the least (while clearing the same amount of bonus).

Also, please tell me the real reasons EV increases if I am wrong. And please do not say "oh, it involves precalculus and pascal's triangle, which you wouldn't understand".

Thank you kindly.

[festeringZit]

Kyleb,

You are totally wrong.

The *only* reason EV increases with an increase
in bet size is the increase in busting out
before wagering requirements are bet, and hence
less wagering at negative EV games.