Would you bet the flop here? - Page 2

bernie · #11 06-26-2006, 06:49 PM

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Because everyone would likely just call; and right so with over 1:12 odds. The turn would then probably be checked to me, and if I bet out again people still get about 1:10 odds to correctly pursue any miracle they might hope for (or a flush). Now if I check, someone is likely to bet out on the turn, giving me the chance to raise a smaller pot. Now they face a 2BB bet on a 7BB pot, making a call incorrect in many cases. Also, I might actually make more money with a turn raise, or at least almost the same. I'm just not sure if this principle completely applies here.

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I had a feeling you were going to say this exact line of thinking, which is incredibly wrong. You are betting for value, there is no need to protect when you have the best hand.

I really don't want to get too deep into why you should bet this flop... if you aren't, just read SSHE. Your thinking is way far out there.

Also, do you think everyone is drawing? Why can't anyone call down with a weaker hand?

Haupt_234

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His thinking is fine, it's just not the hand to do it. It's not as simple as just 'you have the best hand, therefore you must bet'.

The flop really isn't that coordinated(other than the flush draw) especially if these players are tight coldcallers. There are no overcards to beat you and many lesser hands will call. Initial preflop raiser likely has none of the flop. Nor does the coldcaller. On top of that, you have the A of trump. Even if a lesser K calls (correctly if he holds the Kicker of trump card) he won't get the odds on the turn to call as he'd be getting only 9-1 on a 14-1 shot. Yet he'd likely pay off all the way. Most of the other 2 pair draws would likely be Axs.(though not as true in looser games. Also the BB might not.) So you won't mind the A hitting the turn.

Sometimes when you do have the best hand, you don't always bet/raise. Both SSHE and HEPFAP cover this. OP may be thinking more of the HEPFAP example. Add an opponent or 2 and I might wait into the turn.

b

Theodore Donald Kiravatsos · #12 06-26-2006, 08:53 PM

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...On top of that, you have the A of trump....
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I agree that this is a consideration that should not be overlooked. If you lead with TPTK and the nut 3-flush, you will give yourself a lot more options on the turn.

Suppose the spade hits after you bet the flop and are called...

1) Heads-up. If the play is heads-up with you and the original preflop raiser, you will often feel confident that you still have the best hand. Your bet bought you a couple folds, so dealing with the spade isn't so tricky. You will usually keep your foot on the gas here.

2) All call. Your turn play will now be a lot more dependent on the type of opponents you have on your hands. If you are dealing with a bunch of tricky basserds who will checkraise you with their crappy sooooted random crap spades, (because they are the "any two soooted" type), well you MAY want to go ahead and take a free card if they check to the man who's had his foot on the gas. It's not ABC, but there certainly are times where TPTK on the turn with the nut flush draw working is a time to take a free card if you could get it. Perhaps this was one of them. If you turn the nut flush draw and are facing a bet and a raise on the turn, you would really wish you could take a free card off that a flop bet might have bought you.

Of course, there would also be a lot of turn cards that fall that would reinforce your read of yourself with the best hand, and you would want to keep your foot on the gas. I'm just saying that given some common considerations I make on the flop about how things MIGHT go on the turn, the combination of holding A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] AND having position points to leading this flop.

ncboiler · #13 06-26-2006, 10:20 PM

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Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 5 folds, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 1 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, CO folds, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG calls.

River: (10.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB.

Wondering if my flop check was correct here. I think so; opinions?

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I don't get it. Open folding may be a better choice. BET!!!

ncboiler · #14 06-26-2006, 10:25 PM

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Because everyone would likely just call; and right so with over 1:12 odds. The turn would then probably be checked to me, and if I bet out again people still get about 1:10 odds to correctly pursue any miracle they might hope for (or a flush). Now if I check, someone is likely to bet out on the turn, giving me the chance to raise a smaller pot. Now they face a 2BB bet on a 7BB pot, making a call incorrect in many cases. Also, I might actually make more money with a turn raise, or at least almost the same. I'm just not sure if this principle completely applies here.

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I had a feeling you were going to say this exact line of thinking, which is incredibly wrong. You are betting for value, there is no need to protect when you have the best hand.

Haupt_234

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Have the best hand AND will take down the pot more than your fair share.

MKR · #15 06-26-2006, 10:39 PM

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there is no need to protect when you have the best hand.

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Surely this is wrong.

ncboiler · #16 06-26-2006, 11:13 PM

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there is no need to protect when you have the best hand.

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Surely this is wrong.

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Haupt is rarely wrong but I just think he over generalized here for the sake of simplicity.

Haupt_234 · #17 06-26-2006, 11:36 PM

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Surely this is wrong.

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Don't be so nitty. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I never claimed my typing skills were very accurate, and of course this isn't always true...

Haupt_234

MKR · #18 06-27-2006, 01:10 AM

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Surely this is wrong.

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Don't be so nitty. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I never claimed my typing skills were very accurate, and of course this isn't always true...

Haupt_234

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My remark was directed at your claim, not your typing. I guess we agree, it isn't true that "there is no need to protect when you have the best hand." The error is substantial and central to your post. I don't think that picking up on it is either being picky or doing a disservice.

MKR