inducing a bluff with ace high

[Axiom27]

villan is a decent lag who tends to try to push people off hands post flop.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP folds, Button calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (8 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB

[The Bryce]

What's the question?

[Axiom27]

Is there any point in betting? if i'm beat, check-calling and betting the river cost the same 1 BB... since an overpair isn't too likely to raise the river on this board.

pot is 8 BB. if he has an ace, i split the pot. so, getting a fold is only worth 4 BB. if he folds a tiny amount like 10% i show a profit of .4 BB.

on the other hand. not many people are going to take a stab at this pot with anything but an ace or a better hand. so inducing a bluff may be a wasted effort that gives up that tiny bit of fold equity that betting might have generated. in order to make .4 BB i need him to bluff K high like 40% of the time.

[admiralfluff]

Given your description I think this c/c is best, but this post does segway into something I've been thinking about recently. (sorry for the hijack).

I think many trickier lags would be more likely to bluff raise this river than bluff when checked to. They know the tighties are checking with the intention of calling with A high here a lot, but will have a hand range composed of both weaker and stronger holdings when they bet. It's possible a bet/call could be better than a check/call. Any thoughts, or other places where this concept may be applicable?

[The Bryce]

Post deleted by The Bryce

[The Bryce]

If he's going to blow you off the pot he'll raise the turn, not the river. People don't just float so that their bluffs can be 1BB more expensive. The only bluff you see from a LAG on the river is the raise with the chop ace. Getting called by king high is pretty rare, so I would just check-call to avoid having to pay off some wierd slowplay.

[admiralfluff]

[ QUOTE ]
People don't just float so that their bluffs can be 1BB more expensive. The only bluff you see from a LAG on the river is the raise with the chop ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. People do every retarded thing imaginable in poker. The question is do they do it frequently, and predictably enough for it to be exploitable.

I'm of the opinion that there are some tricky lags who will call that turn, and bluff raise that river often enough for it to be something we should consider.

I might be wrong though...

[bigjoet]

"since an overpair isn't too likely to raise the river on this board."

that isnt true.. u 3 bet from sb, unless u r crazy, there's no chance u have either 5 or 6... i'll sometimes trap w/ big pair down on a paired board when i they're drawing slim to none against my big pair...

[piki]

[ QUOTE ]
It's possible a bet/call could be better than a check/call. Any thoughts, or other places where this concept may be applicable?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe this is somewhat similar situation in this respect: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...e=0#Post6070824

-pix

[admiralfluff]

I was just about to post this link!

Nice catch.