KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????

[NajdorfDefense]

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Triple H,

Bob and John's race in the Wood was much better than it looked, in my opinion. His thorograph figure for it is surprisingly fast (like 0 1/2 or something) largely because I think he lost a ton of ground on the turn.

Compare Brother Derek, who's fast races have come getting dream trips on the rail at a Santa Anita track he obviously adores.

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I dunno. In the rain I like him, but he lost that ground because he failed to change leads and almost blew the race, another 1/8 mile and Jazil woulda won by 5 lengths and the final furlong was awfully slow. Perhaps there's some value at 12-1 or so. Two weeks ago his odds were 8-1 or so and they've done nothing but drop.
There are 7 horses with better Beyers than him 3 with multiple ones higher than him. Hard to like here and he certainly can get pushed out wider in a 20-horse field around the turn, which would basically kill any chance whatsoever for him, and getting buried inside behind the 4 speed horses as they die off, one by one, may be a worse fate. He will need a perfect trip.

I agree that BroDerek is your typicaly 5th or 7th place Derby finisher, maybe he gets up for the Show. Definitely consider for superfectas.

Naj

[TripleH68]

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Triple H,

Bob and John's race in the Wood was much better than it looked, in my opinion. His thorograph figure for it is surprisingly fast (like 0 1/2 or something) largely because I think he lost a ton of ground on the turn.

Compare Brother Derek, who's fast races have come getting dream trips on the rail at a Santa Anita track he obviously adores.

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Hey W,

I am admittedly a harness racing fan and expert handicapper. When it comes to the runners I just play the big races mainly and am far from expert.

That said I just saw an exhausted Bob and John at the end of a very taxing race in the Wood. Moving forward off that race seems unlikely. Of course we will all find out tomorrow.

BTW - I have a streak of endorsing the third place horse and I like Brother Derek and AP Warrior. Go get 'em.

[dicelumpY2005]

As we get closer to post time, more smoke is coming out of my ears... I cannot remember the last time where I thought almost a dozen horses all have a legitimate shot at winning this race. I saw the updated odds within the last hour on TVG and saw Steppenwolfer at a meager 11-1. I know this will come up by the time the race goes off, but at those odds, I suddenly am not such a fan! Was hoping to get 25-1 or more on a horse I thought could gobble up the ground down the stretch at what could be the fastest fractions I have seen in my life. It's looking more and more like I might just box 6 horses or so in an exacta, and possibly wheel the entire field in some sort of pick 3/pick 4 depending on the races leading up to the Derby. One of these years I would love to have a pick going with an "ALL" in the Derby, just so the favorite can win by 10 lengths! LOL.

[Aces McGee]

Hijacking.

Where do you guys go to follow the game? I own and have read Beyer and Davidowitz and am really fascinated by it, but getting started seems overwhelming. Is there a 2+2 of horseracing?

-McGee

[Bishop22]

Think you can throw out the slop angle..

[TripleH68]

Go to bloodhorse and read Steve Haskins commentaries.

[W. Deranged]

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Hijacking.

Where do you guys go to follow the game? I own and have read Beyer and Davidowitz and am really fascinated by it, but getting started seems overwhelming. Is there a 2+2 of horseracing?

-McGee

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The answer is basically "yes." The most sophisticated handicapping is done by Jerry Brown and co. at www.thorograph.com and Ragozin at www.thesheets.com. The two are really, really bitter rivals, but they basically share similar methodology. They handicap based on very involved speed figures which incorporate not only time and track speed, but ground loss, wind, weight, etc... The do a lot of empirical studies on whether certain figure patterns in certain conditions are profitable. It's very interesting stuff, in my opinion. Go to thorograph.com and download their Kentucky Derby seminar (it's like $15). I think you'll find it very interesting.

[TripleH68]

Oh my. I have a juicy live ticket in the Oaks/Derby double.

I have Lemons Forever(45:1) with Point Determined, Barbaro, A.P. Warrior, SNS, Cause to Believe and Brother Derek. I played the 4,7,9,12,13,14 in the Oaks. Cost = $72. Bad news is I did not play the exacta in the Oaks. If you know my history you can throw out the above horses in the derby! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

[Bill C]

Way to go!!
You are very live, and some of those will pay huge.

bc

[llabb]

I am not a big horse bettor, but have read a number of cappers all talking how they expect a furious pace, with a lot of frontrunners who need to lead all fighting each other and pushing the pace too early. So they expect the eventual winner to be perhaps a deep closer like last year, or a strong stalker that is just off the pace. Some on this board seem to agree.

The hard part, of course, is picking the eventual winner, but I'm not really looking to nail the correct longshot, as I don't know enough to do so. I'd simply like to make a reasonable wager with the above in mind. That being said, would it be a good move to simply bet against the favorites expected to push the pace? The odds would not be great, but you would only be in danger from a few horses (albeit the favored ones).

For example, you could cover every single horse except wagering against just 3: Barbaro, Brother Derek, and Lawyer Ron, for a combined line of somewhere around -130 if anyone else wins. If you add in another couple of the favorites, you could probably push it to +200 or +300 or so, depending on how many horses you wanted to risk betting against.

Is this a good idea, or does it seem silly to bet against these favorites? If it's an okay move, what other favored horses are a good idea to bet against?