Call 3 bets with this draw?

[Str8Fish]

my advice... disconnect-protect

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
...the flush draw was good.

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Bigger problem: when the action is to you it's 3 bets in a 15-bet pot. With this action, I think you have to discount both straight and flush outs, and I don't think you have enough to call.

[bozlax]

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It wouldn't have made any difference this time, but not getting more money in on this flop is criminal. I don't care if this time our gutshot was only a pipe-dream: that's just results based thinking. If the hand was posted with action cutoff on the flop when it's one bet to OP, would we really suggest that he just call?

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Andy, you've got a bettor and two callers with two left to act behind. If you raise, and the two behind you fold and everybody in front calls that's +3SB. Then you hit one of your hands on the turn and everybody checks to you and only calls your bet, yada yada. otoh, Hero smooth-calls the flop and both players behind him call that's +2SB, so you're only giving up 1SB on the flop, but now you've still got 5 opponents when your draw hits. You're not winning UI, and your TP outs are severely impaired by the straight possibilities they put on the board, so forcing anybody out of this pot is what would be criminal.

Future bets, m'boy, future bets!

[Andy Ross]

Seems like you're choosing the worst case scenario for a raise situation. On the flop, we have about 45% equity. I reckon that we should find a line that jams this pot full of money on the flop: mostly theirs.

If we raise and the two yet to act fold, then that's poker. They were unlikely to give us much money in that case anyway. If they coldcall and come along for the ride, then I'm on Cloud 9. People coldcall all the time with weak draws and idiot hands. Even *if* they fold, our raise is still easily for value. I am of the opinion that we ought to take a shot at building a big pot.

Sometimes we'll have 3 opponents and a nice pot. A lot of the time we will have 4 opponents and a bloated pot. Every so often we will have 5 and a Marlon Brando sized pot. I don't think we should forgo that opportunity by playing the flop passively.

[Preytar]

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I think folding, calling and capping are all wrong, so my advice is to leave the table right now so you don't have to do any of them.

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Nice!

Brian

[bozlax]

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Seems like you're choosing the worst case scenario for a raise situation. On the flop, we have about 45% equity.

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Then I guess we're at opposite ends of the spectrum. We are 45% to make a hand IF all 12 of our outs are available. However, the action on the flop is saying that they aren't, and, even if they are you have to discount our equity for the times that we're going to make a hand and be drawn out against anyway since we're not going to be winning UI or by catching TP so we can't cancel them out.

I understand what you're saying, but for my money 5 people putting in 1 small bet each on the flop is better than 3 people putting in 2 (and it would REALLY, REALLY suck to have the two players behind you fold, the original bettor 3-bet, and one or two of the players in the middle fold), as we have the opportunity to hit on the turn and punish 5 people instead of 3 with big bets instead of small.

Interestingly, there was a similar thread a few weeks back where I was the one advocating pushing draws on the flop, and I still think that as a default it's the right course. If I were playing this hand while 4-tabling I'd probably raise this up. In a case like this, however, with time to think about it, I think it's MORE right to wait and see what happens, and give the players behind us a chance to stay in.

[Andy Ross]

Fair enough. I think that I prefer the risk of knocking guys out if it can often give us a shot at a huge pot. Good discussion of it anyhow. Cheers.

Andy

[bozlax]

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Fair enough. I think that I prefer the risk of knocking guys out if it can often give us a shot at a huge pot. Good discussion of it anyhow. Cheers.

Andy

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I agree. The problem in this case is that knocking players out doesn't IMPROVE our chances of taking down this large pot.

[As Zehn]

Would someone please explain why calling a raise with J8s from BB is a good play. Wouldn't this be an automatic fold?

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
Would someone please explain why calling a raise with J8s from BB is a good play. Wouldn't this be an automatic fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is gettin 9:1 now and likely 11:1 on his call. This is an easy call.