$50NL AA Hand - I feel sick

[JackAll]

Yeah, as played the river bet was fine.

[Dopey]

JackAll,

I agree with a 3/4 pot turn, folding to a re-raise. But given villian stack size any appropriate river bet and i think all the money goes in. If hero bets $20 into the hypothetical $40 pot, I dont see how you can fold to a $7 raise into a $87 pot.

OOP,

As for check/calling, it depends on the reason you would do it. It doesn't work if you are doing it because you are afraid your behind given stack size and opponent. By the river villian only has a 1/2 pot size bet, and given his AF he will likely bet with a wide enough range that you need to call. Only if you had a read that villian would bet significatly less than a 1/2 PSB then could you consider c/c (Like a $10-15 bet).

I actually do like the c/c in this spot though. Unless you have a different read, his AF of 4.5 means he bets/raises alot more than he calls. If he checks behind he is more likely to have a hand that he wouldn't of called your bet anyway. So c/c to induce a bluff seems best, and given his stack I am almost always going to call regrdless of size.

If you are both deeper it would come down to the read I had on villians capability of bluff-raising the river. If villians not likely to bluff-raise (or maybe value raising in his mind with something like KQ) then a 1/2 PSB bet folding to a raise seems good. Otherwise I think c/c a reasonable bet is good (reasonable = 1/2 - 3/4 PSB)

**Disclaimer: Im a NL noob, so this advice may not be correct. Just my $0.02**

Dopey

[JackAll]

[ QUOTE ]
JackAll,

I agree with a 3/4 pot turn, folding to a re-raise. But given villian stack size any appropriate river bet and i think all the money goes in. If hero bets $20 into the hypothetical $40 pot, I dont see how you can fold to a $7 raise into a $87 pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fundamental point is that villian knows you are not folding, and would only raise there for value, so one pair is beat almost every time without reads that villian is mentally retarded.

For the numbers side of it:

2/3 (say $10) on the turn would make the pot 36.75 and players put in 17.5 each. Then half on the turn would make it so players put in 36 each total. A raise from villian costs $12 more for a $72 pot meaning that we have to win here atleast 14% of the time and we don't.

But all that is moot due to the first point above.

[scorer]

I think you didn't bet the flop hard enough. with Q/K and possible straights out there you need to bet hard here. Also, you need to raise more pre flop.

[Dopey]

[ QUOTE ]

The fundamental point is that villian knows you are not folding, and would only raise there for value, so one pair is beat almost every time without reads that villian is mentally retarded.


[/ QUOTE ]

I understand and agree with this logic, and your action would be obvious versus any good or even decent player.

Given the OOP's read and the referenced stats, I think even the example you give is closer ($12 to call to win $72) but I would still make that call the majority of the time. So I stand by the point that once the river comes the hero can't get away from the hand even had he bet as you had suggested.

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[JackAll]

[ QUOTE ]
I stand by the point that once the river comes the hero can't get away from the hand even had he bet as you had suggested.

[/ QUOTE ]

Knowing when to fold is an extremely important part of the game. Chasing a pot when you're behind is giving away money.