three river call/fold decisions

[samoleus]

Neo, remember that this player would not necessarily think to put me on a hand. He was not very good. But he was nitty and scared enough that he would be frightened about the possibility of me having an eight. He would not raise the river without a hand that can beat trip eights. The only two possibilities are TT and KK - and as I explained, I think KK is much more likely.

Obviously, I do not lay this down against 95% of players, but this guy was a nit, he was not creative, and he was initimidated by my big stack.

If I did make a bad fold, I am certain that it was only because I was against TT. It is true that he doesn't put me on QQ, but that doesn't matter. He is not value RAISING a one pair hand on a paired board - and especially not for his whole stack.

[greg nice]

sam

the way you played hand 3, there is no reason for him to put you on a hand as strong as queens full. he probably thinks 3 of a kind 8s or better would have played the hand faster in SOME way. so when the turn checks through and you lead, from his point of view, your range could be a bluff to two pair. it could be likely he puts you on KT, QT, KQ and with the pair of 8s his two pair with AA beats you.

whether the nit thinks this through or not only you will know. but your hand is so disguised by your slow played line that he has no reason to believe you are this strong.

and i agree with your reasoning that KK is more likely than TT soley based on the fact that he checked behind on the turn.

[samoleus]

what I reiterate is that while it is true that he can't put me on QQ, he would be too frightened to raise AA here - and certainly not for his stack. I know most players with AA would love the paired eights and would raise, but this guy was too scared and intimidated. I can't imagine him raising his whole stack with aces here even if he does not put me on such a strong hand.

[KRANTZ]

Sam,

In hand 1 - if you had checked the turn behind, what do you do if he bets a blank river or checks a blank river to you?

[samoleus]

a very good question (and perhaps partially justfies my betting the turn). if I had checked, my decision on whether or not to call a river bet would depend a lot on what the river card was. this is one situation where it is hard to define a brick. also, this player would probably give away the strength of his holding by the size of a river bet and I would decide accordingly.

if I was checked to, I would usually make a value bet on the river especially if the river card was something like a black four or something.

[KRANTZ]

i think if you check the turn and value bet the river if a brick falls, you're opening yourself up to a check-raise bluff by a ton of worse hands who know that you're weak (because you checked the turn). at least unless you check made hands on the turn as well (which i get the feeling you wouldn't normally). well, i'm implying you're opening yourself up to this move if the player is aware/good.

so something you might want to consider, and kind of what i was getting at with the question

[luckychewy]

Say the river came a black four like OP said he would value bet. Now the board reads 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9x 4x. Villain checks the turn AND river to us, and you don't think we can value bet here? Even if he does have a hand like TT/JJ and is inducing a bluff, why would he c/r? Either way I think you can bet and have it be significantly +EV. If he c/r's it's all villain dependent and history if he has c/r'd river before.

I agree you say you open yourself up to a move if the player is aware/good, but that's assuming we aren't, which in this case is not true since OP is clearly capable of making big calls/folds. I think the OP is probably more aware/good than villain so if villain decided to c/r the river without any history, he would probably make the right decision.

[KRANTZ]

i'm just saying if i were playing sam, and i whiffed on the c/r with the naked ace of diamonds on the turn, the only way i would be able to win the pot is if i c/red the river with ace high. and i would, because i know he's likely weak. if i lead, i risk being picked off by many one pair hands.

of course, you would have to have the right image/also pull that move with an actual flush, but what i'm trying to imply here is that betting the turn OR the river here sets you up for a c/r. so you can't really analyze a hand like this for sam or any player who floats like this - you need to be witness to prior history between the opponents and the table dynamic. so the only real advice we could give here is: sometimes you bet, sometimes you check, and it all depends on what you think the villain is most likely going to do in response (based on recent hands/image considerations). and i think sam's reasoning is spot on, and betting the turn would be best for him in this situation.

[Allinlife]

we need more threads like this

[cero_z]

Hey samoleus,

Tough laydown. Here's something else in favor of it: I don't believe a nit will bet full pot when he flops the overfull.

However, I still would not make it. I just don't think you can be sure enough that he isn't sick of you, not paying attention, etc., to lay this down correctly. I've done crazy things based on a read, too, though.

Also, your OP didn't say he was an extremely uncreative nit; it said he was very very tight.

Great thread. Post more, please.