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#41
01-07-2006, 02:08 PM
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Re: 50/100 party hand
or hit another diamond on the river and smack you.
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#43
01-07-2006, 02:59 PM
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Re: 50/100 party hand
[ QUOTE ]
This is a call, probably even so if you knew the worst case, odds wise, would happen. [/ QUOTE ] you gotta say why though. please allow for set redraws.
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#44
01-07-2006, 03:16 PM
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Re: 50/100 party hand
[ QUOTE ]
please allow for set redraws. [/ QUOTE ] The flop getting bet, raised, and 3-bet doesn't necessarily mean there's a set out there against you. The first flop raiser could easily have just about any pocket pair or J, and the 3-better a hand like AJs or TT or something. Sure, there's a pretty decent chance somebody's got a set, but it's nowhere near 100%. I haven't ever played in Party's 50-100, so it would be impracticle for me to try and put a precise number on how often they will have a set, but I'm not quite ready to be entirely scared yet. The fact that somebody could have a lone [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (either in a pocket pair or a hand like AJ), or that A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is a reasonable hand for any of them to have (which would give them more reason to raise or 3-bet their flush draw) should be taken into consideration, though.
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#45
01-07-2006, 03:35 PM
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Re: 50/100 party hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This is a call, probably even so if you knew the worst case, odds wise, would happen. [/ QUOTE ] you gotta say why though. please allow for set redraws. [/ QUOTE ] Dude gave good enough math here. Everyone is overest. the chance we are against a flush here. We have nice implied odds. P.s. who is wannabestox?
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#46
01-07-2006, 04:56 PM
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Re: 50/100 party hand
I didnt see dude's post, sorry about that. It's close anyways, and I dont think clear at all - it all depends on the assumptions. People may be overestimating the odds of a higher flush draw out there, but being against a set is also a killer. On average you MAYBE have positive implied odds here. It's very possible you have negative or zero impplied odds because of flush and set redraws.
so saying you only need 10 outs to make it right, could be pushing it. you also need to make assumptions about how much actino goes in on the turn and river with different hands and under different scenarios. wannabestox is a good friend. I will let him choose to reveal himself if he wants.
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#49
01-08-2006, 12:14 AM
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Re: 50/100 party hand
[ QUOTE ]
how much did they raise? minimum? then fold. [/ QUOTE ] I think that is part of the confusion. They raised both the minimum and the maximum . . . AT THE SAME TIME!!
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