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#31
04-06-2006, 01:33 AM
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Re: hero vomits and...? ($150 Stars)
[ QUOTE ]
My point is that there is a margin of error, and it all lies on the side of him being looser than that. The other point of not passing up this however small edge is equally valid, though. [/ QUOTE ] Well said. 
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#32
04-06-2006, 01:34 AM
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Re: hero vomits and...? ($150 Stars)
Bestcellar, the results are obvious so you didn't need to post them.
The reason you have a clear edge here, is that your range is on the tight side, and if it is wrong, it is looser not tighter, like Donny ^^^ said. Even if your range was spot on... then you still have an edge.
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#33
04-06-2006, 01:36 AM
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Re: hero vomits and...? ($150 Stars)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm confused as to why this is a clear edge. Are you talking about JJ being 47% vs. the range I'm putting him on justifying my pot odds to push? I'm not trying to be an idiot, I'm honestly confused. I had a really bad feeling about this hand pretty much from the moment he acted. I knew he had a premium hand, and I knew I didn't want to see him flip up most of the hands I knew he was going to probably flip up. [/ QUOTE ] .47 *22.5 = 10.575 > 10 [/ QUOTE ] I'm stupid, so you're going to have to break that down for me.
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#34
04-06-2006, 01:37 AM
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Re: hero vomits and...? ($150 Stars)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] My point is that there is a margin of error, and it all lies on the side of him being looser than that. The other point of not passing up this however small edge is equally valid, though. [/ QUOTE ] Well said. [/ QUOTE ]
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#35
04-06-2006, 01:41 AM
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Re: hero vomits and...? ($150 Stars)
[ QUOTE ]
Bestcellar, the results are obvious so you didn't need to post them. The reason you have a clear edge here, is that your range is on the tight side, and if it is wrong, it is looser not tighter, like Donny ^^^ said. Even if your range was spot on... then you still have an edge. [/ QUOTE ] I was certain that my range was not incorrect. There are times when I'm certain my range for a player could be off, but this really was NOT one of them. Maybe 99, but I really really doubted that. Don't ask me why, I guess it was a gut feeling based on everything I had seen. I was certain that my range was not off in the slightest, and intuitively, when five of the six possible hands you're expecting to see you are either a huge dog or a very slight favorite to, it doesn't make you feel all that great about pushing with a stack you think can last a little longer. If my stack was say 1500, this thread never would've been made. If this stack was 2700+, I would have just called and taken a flop, and gotten away. The stack size was awkward and the whole composition of the hand flat out sucked. Not to turn this into a thread that will be moved to BBV because honestly it's not a bad beat and I didn't feel that bad about it at the time. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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#36
04-06-2006, 01:44 AM
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Re: hero vomits and...? ($150 Stars)
I trust Cellar's read. He was there, I wasn't, and I think it seems entirely plausible. If his read is right, I give up the 3% edge for first in vigorish in the next few hands.
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#38
04-06-2006, 01:49 AM
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Re: hero vomits and...? ($150 Stars)
Ansky, you keep saying that this is no time to pass up edges. The problem is, we do not have an edge. If the read and resulting range are correct, and I think they probably are, then we are actually a slight dog.
Pass this up and put your 10BBs to work with first-in vigorishness.
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#39
04-06-2006, 01:55 AM
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Re: hero vomits and...? ($150 Stars)
[ QUOTE ]
wtf makes you think you can make up the 3% edge with your precious FIV. [/ QUOTE ] Times we're not called PLUS times we're called and win MINUS times we're called and lose EQUALS greater than 3% edge.
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#40
04-06-2006, 01:57 AM
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Re: hero vomits and...? ($150 Stars)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm confused as to why this is a clear edge. Are you talking about JJ being 47% vs. the range I'm putting him on justifying my pot odds to push? I'm not trying to be an idiot, I'm honestly confused. I had a really bad feeling about this hand pretty much from the moment he acted. I knew he had a premium hand, and I knew I didn't want to see him flip up most of the hands I knew he was going to probably flip up. [/ QUOTE ] .47 *22.5 = 10.575 > 10 [/ QUOTE ] I'm stupid, so you're going to have to break that down for me. [/ QUOTE ] oh if you mean big blinds, it's actually .47*24 (with the dead money) = 11.28>10, and yes, this is more than a slight edge.
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