JTs settle a disagreement with DeathDonkey

[MacGuyV]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if the SB is aggressive enough to prevent us from getting a free card, he may also be aggressive enough to 3 bet a medium pocket pair or even AK on the flop which would make us a favorite so its not like he just has TT+ everytime.


[/ QUOTE ]

Donkey,
I'm not sure I follow this.

[bender]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise the flop. Our equity is excellent in a 4way pot even worst-case when pfr has an overpair (which is less likely than overcards IMO, unless there as an unspecified player read). I want to tie players to the pot when they are willing to call multiple bets with no-pair hands, so if I hit on the turn they call with their gutdrawing dead.

Also, if pfr 3bets you usually get a raise in on the big streets when you hit so i'm not too worried about it killing my implied odds.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this. I think alot of people are forgetting (or underestimating) the times that when the sb 3-bets, the people in the middle are still calling anyway.

[Crimson]

It is obvious at this point that not only do people disagree greatly on this, that while interesting, the replies are becoming stagnant, so lets try and organize our thoughts. We're obviously not folding, so lets look at raising as our option, and weigh the pros and cons of that accordingly. (I picked raise because I had originally intended to do this for both raising and calling, but realized 1 would be sufficient for if its pros outweighed its cons, it would be thus).

Raising

Pros:
The obvious equity edge vs. the field.
Maybe getting a free card, depending on how aggressive our opponents are.
If the SB 3 bets, and the other opponents call, we can still cap for value. Secondly, by building the pot, when we hit, we may induce a call from someone drawing dead due to the sheer size of the pot(see Westley878's quote for these last 2 arguments.)

Cons:

It seems first and formost, we fear being 3 bet by the SB, driving out the callers, and ruining our odds.
Also, we are afraid that if we raise, and it is simply called back to us, it will be checked around if we hit. Calling allows us the opportunity to raise the turn for a bigger bet when we hit, if we fear being checked to.

Newhizzle had a few interesting statements as well, which i'll quote. "i dont necessarily agree that raising hurts our implied odds because i think people will slow down in a 4 way pot when a flush card hits anyway, and if SB just has overs, he probably wont bet the turn anyway, not knowing who will bet, you might get put into a situation where you are forced to face the field with 2 cold or go for overcalls

people are likely calling with all kinds of crap on this flop and may not plan to continue on the turn UI, plus if we up the size of the pot maybe people will keep drawing to their gutshot even if a flush card hits"

If I missed anything, I apologize, I think I hit the major points. Obviously this is paraphrased from the thread, and not new information, so it is just a recap.

Other things to consider: Player reads. How likely is the 3 bet to happen, and how likely is he to lead a spade turn if we just call with UI overs or an overpair (set at best). How likely are the callers in MP likely to call if the SB does 3 bet?

This, dispite many posters claims, is close, and in my opinion which button to hit would depend on some metagame considerations like player reads and what not.

Hope this helped. Edit to say: I'd raise.

[Wynton]

Stellar,

Actually, I think that you're contradicting yourself. If you think there is so much happening on this board, why do you expect that a flop raise could gain us a free card?

Are you suggesting that one of our opponents - who is helped by the turn - would more likely opt for a c/r than just betting out? I don't believe we can count on that, when the board is drawy and free cards could be a concern for our opponents.

[Josh.]

thread is huuuuge so sorry if i'm reiterating someone's point but i want to post in case i'm not. i think raising is very bad. when people raise from the SB they typically have big pairs or AK. if he has a big pair, you have 9 and only 9 outs twice, and the sb will 3-bet you. hell, he might even 3-bet you with AK. why ruin your fantastic relative position for a cheesy free card that probably won't even work? raising here is something i would've done automatically back at 3/6 or wherever because i only needed 2-1 on my bet to make money!

[Trix]

I raise here.

Usually atleast one of the flop callers will call again IF it gets 3bet by SB. Probably both fairly often depending on their looseness. When we dont get 3bet, we actually have a fair chance of a free card on the turn.

If you just call, then you can´t really count on SB to bet again on the turn unless he has a pair if a spade hits, sometimes AsXx I guess too. If he doesn´t bet, then the other may or may not bet, allowing you to raise, but you show more strenght this way too, so they should be more likely to fold than if you had raised the flop as they would be faced with one bet at the time that way when SB doesn´t 3bet. When he do, we probably still get to raise that turn spade, which is alot of the argument for just calling. I dont think they are less inclined to call once on a spade if the flop was 3bet and the pot made bigger than if you just called the flop and pfr bet again.

This hand differs from the article stox wrote in the way that there is one more player in the pot here, the pfr range is wider than the examples stox wrote. As far as I remember those where 3bet pots. There was also just one player between, which means just losing him will make you pay for drawing as you can afford to lose one in this case as your equity is probably above 33%.

I think preflop is close.

Arguments for raising are equity, cheap turn cards, folding dominating hands in the blinds, folding equity preflop.

Calling seems best when the blinds aren´t going to fold better hands anyway or when they will often 3bet.
Another important thing is that alot of these limping types makes pretty big mistakes in smaller pots, so sometimes it´s worth sacrificing your immediate equity for that.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I think that you're contradicting yourself. If you think there is so much happening on this board, why do you expect that a flop raise could gain us a free card?

Are you suggesting that one of our opponents - who is helped by the turn - would more likely opt for a c/r than just betting out? I don't believe we can count on that, when the board is drawy and free cards could be a concern for our opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have no idea what you are talking about.

I'm saying that just calling will often get you a free card when you miss the turn because SB is not likely to bet against without a pair. This undermines one of the claimed benefits of raising (getting a freecard) because it may well be happening anyway.

[Wynton]

I mistyped my message and couldn't correct it fast enough. I meant to say that, if you thought there was a lot happening on the board - which I believe was your comment before - I don't know why we would expect that it will get checked through on the turn, if we just called the flop.

I understand that sb will not likely bet without a pair. But I think it's likely that, if he doesn't bet, someone else will (and will probably have a pair).

[krishan]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm certainly not positive, and this is always situational. This one is close otherwise two good players would not disagree anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW I think good players are disagreeing because it's not clear, not because it's close. Too many conditional variables. I think it's likely that there is a correct non-marginal answer.

Krishan

[poker1O1]

AK - 16 combo's
AA - 12 combo's
KK - 12 combo's
QQ - 12 combo's
JJ - 6 combo's

42 overpair > 16 overcards

that was loosely his range, but still clear that a 3bet from the SB is likely.
So far, it appears the main argument for raise is that we intend to take a free card. If we do in fact raise, the reason should be because we have good equity on this flop and want to increase the pot size. Raising for a free card will rarely happen here. Now, given that the main argument for raising is to get more money in the pot, I believe calling is the right option, that way we wont shut out the middle players, and SB will likely lead into them on the turn as well.