32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had!

[samoleus]

I contemplated not sending this hand for fear that it will give away too much. But what the heck. This hand was from a couple of months ago. The stage is set for some high drama. Bld and I both have enormous stacks in the 2K 6-max game. Bld has just under 16K and I have 23K. We are across the table from each other and while we are sort of running over the table, we are fighting each other hard for the table captaincy.

Some background for those of you that are not familiar with Bld's game. He is in my opinion my toughest opponent on Party and by a pretty wide margin at that. Exceptional hand reader, courageous bluffer, can make huge calls with thin holdings and can also lay down huge hands (important fact when considering this hand). He plays almost (but not quite) as LAG as I do. So we've gone to battle quite a few times with quirky hands flopping pairs and gutshots vs goofy two pairs and stuff. While we have played huge pots against each other a number of times in the past(often with marginal holdings, draws, and bluffs), we have not tangled in a huge pot in this session yet.

UTG (about 2K to start the hand) limps. BLd limps in second position. It folds to me in the cutoff, and I raise to 65 with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Blinds fold and limpers call.

Flop is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG bets only 60 into a pot of about 225. Bld calls the 60. I raise to 190. UTG folds. Bld raises to 600. I lick my chops. I am hoping he has the set he is representing (certainly the cold call, followed by a reraise of the preflop raiser is a really powerful move). Bld is capable of making that move with a pair plus draw type hand; however, the fact that the flop was a rainbow is a HUGE consideration. That rules out a lot of pair+flush draw hands. Now I imagine he might have a hand like 7-6 or something, but a set is definitely more likely here. I actually hope he has a set, because if I hit my hand, it will be totally disguised. I am dreaming of my soon-to-be 39K stack when my straight hits. I call.

Turn is J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Bld fires 1350 into the pot of about 1500. Man, he sure is not letting me draw for cheap. Of course, this would normally be a routine fold. But the implied odds are huge. He must have a set here. Pair+gutshot is looking less and less likely. Again I reiterate that there was no flush draw on the flop. It must be a set. I call.

I can FEEL the 9 or the 4 coming on the river. There it is .... NO - it the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Damn. All I have is 8 high. There is 4200 in the pot. BLD bets 3800.

I check my poker hands rankings card to make sure that a set beats 8 high. It does. Sadly, I move my hand to fold. ... But then it just hits me! What did I play my hand like I am holding? ... Before I answer, consider of course, that Bld still has about 9.5K behind after his river bet. Well, I raised two limpers preflop. There was a bet and a call on the flop - and I raised that! Then I called a third reraise. I followed that with a $1350 call on the turn. ... Why, I must have AA or JJ!! I check my poker hand rankings card again, and it says that AAA and JJJ both beat 777, 555, and 222.

The stack size is PERFECT. The opponent is perfect. As strong as he is, I believe Bld can absolutely fold a set if he thinks he is beaten here (one of a very very few players that I'd try that against - especially with such an aggressive player as myself).

My clock ticks down. I time out on my other tables. I think about whether or not I should pull the trigger on this one. Cojones is not the issue: if I feel it is plus EV, I will make the move. I think about showing this hand after he folds and try to envision the folk songs that will be written about me and this hand. I think about how I will come across on ESPN's "The Best Hand I Ever Played"

Tick, tick, tick, 5, 4, 3, ... you guys pull the trigger or not?

P.S.: Bld, do you remember this hand? Don't say anything until we get some responses if you do. But I am curious if you remember it. It must be about 6 weeks old.

[snagglepuss]

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

if im bld, JJJ is incredibly unlikely for u... and so is the fact that you'd time that low with aaa

[samoleus]

strassa, that (the amount of time that I took to decide) was a HUGE factor tilting my decision towards a fold. I haven't said that I folded, but I can say that if I had made my decision within 10-15 seconds, I move all-in for sure. The time I took evened out the decision for me.

Can you expand on why JJJ is so unlikely? He would not expect me to be so loose on the flop?

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

he would expect u to raise turn a huge amt of the time with jj and these stacks.

[samoleus]

A very good point Jason. The stack sizes were deep enough there (and two to a backdoor flush in addition to the straight draw had arrived). I will often slowplay JJJ on the turn in a situation like this, but the stacks were too deep for that here.

[samoleus]

Strassa, if you hold 77 in Bld's spot and I push, do you make the call? What if you have 22? (you can answer in both cases: a quick push and using my whole time bank).

[aejones]

Deep Stack poker = great.

I push: that's just an unbelievable play and read, but given that deep of stacks, I honestly can't imagine him calling with 555 or 222; I highly doubt he has 34, if he does, and he made that huge turn bet with it, tip your hat to him. I think he might call with 777, but seriously- why would you want to play a pot this big unless you had the goods?

Yes, it looks like you have AAA or 34, and maybe even JJJ. Honestly, I think on that river push, you have the straight, three jacks, or three aces about 80ish% of the time.

Air the other 20ish%, he almost certainly can't beat anything you can value bet, only air.

[EmpireMaker2]

The only thing that makes sense is if you had AA.......

You would of raised the turn with JJ, and the flop or turn with the straight.....


I just don't see this bluff working if you know he has a set.

[whitelime]

Aren't you more likely to have 34 here than AA?