Call 3 bets with this draw?

luckydonut · #1 04-24-2006, 08:58 PM

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 raises, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, MP3 calls, CO raises, Button 3-bets, Hero ???

Three cards make the nut straight and 9 cards make a J high flush. The pot odds right now are 5.25-1 with several players still to act. It will end up somewhere between 4.4-1 (folded to CO, who caps) and 7.9-1 (everyone else, including CO, calls).

This appears to be callable, however:
1. There appears to be a straight already so that's (at least) one of your outs dead.
2. If the nut straight (J9) is out there, the remaining 2 outs (at best) give you half the pot.
3. A stronger flush draw is not getting out of the way in this pot.

So is a call here good value, or just wishful thinking?

Eeegah · #2 04-24-2006, 09:06 PM

Hm. I think MP3 has a flush draw, which probably means it's higher than yours. CO or button smell like a slowplayed set, which means the T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is dead. Edit: oh hell, missed MP3's pfr, so forget this crap.

Miller's Mantra states that the only time you should be folding a flush draw is if the board is double paired and you're facing multiple bets cold, but when we're facing 3 here (and probably a cap), and how much it looks like MP3 was pumping a flush draw of his own...this rather sucks dude.

I think folding, calling and capping are all wrong, so my advice is to leave the table right now so you don't have to do any of them.

sean c · #3 04-24-2006, 11:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think folding, calling and capping are all wrong, so my advice is to leave the table right now so you don't have to do any of them.

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Standard.

Preytar · #4 04-25-2006, 12:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think folding, calling and capping are all wrong, so my advice is to leave the table right now so you don't have to do any of them.

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Nice!

Brian

Superman26gt · #5 04-24-2006, 09:23 PM

I would c/r this flop 3 outs to the nuts, and the flush draw.

I'm folding this turn, there's a straight possibility out there so that discounts some of your outs to the 9, higher flush draw, and potential chance of a full house on river...I don't know about the odds but my general feeling would be to fold.

Andy Ross · #6 04-24-2006, 09:24 PM

The flop is a *must* checkraise. You have a monster of a draw, and you are in a great place to trap the field for lots of bets. Check-calling is tremendously weak.

The turn is a rubbish card, since it devalues your SD. If everyone came along, you could still cap for value, with an equity of about 20%, but capping will likely knock out others. You have the odds to call, without even factoring in what you'll earn on the river when your draw hits.

The thing that sucks most is that it looks like you could have picked a fight on the flop with multiple opponents, which would have been amazing fun with such huge equity.

bozlax · #7 04-25-2006, 01:13 AM

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Three cards make the nut straight

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No, they don't.

You're effed, likely playing for at best a split, at worst a loss to MP3 chasing a gutshot with QJ (which IS the nut straight when the non-spade 9 falls).

Pack up your tent and go home. You could have c/r'd the flop, but it wouldn't have made any difference, just made it a more expensive and therefore harder fold on the turn.

luckydonut · #8 04-25-2006, 05:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Three cards make the nut straight

[/ QUOTE ]

No, they don't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad you noticed my deliberate mistake [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I was living on the wrong street for a while there...

Results in white below: 
MP1 has 9h Ad (straight, ten high).
MP3 doesn't show. (said he had JJ and cursed)
CO has 5s 9s (straight, ten high).
Button has 9c Qh (straight, ten high).
Outcome: MP1 wins 9.41 BB. CO wins 9.41 BB. Button wins 9.41 BB.

UTG+1 folded on the turn.


So in reality the straight was just a dream, but the flush draw was good. Obviously I like the call with all the information, but I'm favouring a fold with the partial information and now that I have more than 30 seconds to think about it. Even if you figure one of the two draws is good, if it goes wild on the river how many bets can you throw out if neither is the nuts?

bozlax · #9 04-25-2006, 10:22 AM

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...the flush draw was good.

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Bigger problem: when the action is to you it's 3 bets in a 15-bet pot. With this action, I think you have to discount both straight and flush outs, and I don't think you have enough to call.

Andy Ross · #10 04-25-2006, 07:13 AM

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You could have c/r'd the flop, but it wouldn't have made any difference, just made it a more expensive and therefore harder fold on the turn.

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It wouldn't have made any difference this time, but not getting more money in on this flop is criminal. I don't care if this time our gutshot was only a pipe-dream: that's just results based thinking. If the hand was posted with action cutoff on the flop when it's one bet to OP, would we really suggest that he just call?

On the turn, we have a flush draw plus a weak 1-card gutshot in an absolutely huge pot. It's an unpaired board, and there's lots of multiway action. I think that folding this turn is playing pretty scared. About 20% of what stands to be a mammoth pot is ours, but we're unwilling to put in a few BB to get at it?