HOH wrong: AK is worth a call???

[SeriousStudent]

I love HOH, and I followed much of Dan's advice to the letter for several months. Unfortunately, my online tournament results were in the black, but just barely. I found myself getting ITM much more than my fair share but FTing very few times, unless the deck ran over me. If you don’t get 1st to 4th more often than you deserve, you will be a big loser overall.

About 3 months ago, I made several changes to my game, after studying the results of hundreds of MTTs I had played.

My results over the next few hundred MTTs have improved dramatically I’m happy to say.

One of the significant changes had to do with how I played AK. IN HOH , Dan says AK is "worth a call" from a mid position raiser ( page 190). In my new and improved strategy, I will almost always ( usual caveats of stack size, etc) re-raise a 3x BB mid position raiser with a very healthy raise of usually 10-12x the BB. Now if a very tight player ( PT 12/7) raised UTG or UTG+1, I would probably fold. Others UTG openers based on read I might reraise. I can't recall the last time I just flat called an opening raiser pre flop with AK.

I can’t think of a common case ( I’m sure there is a corner case based on stack size, position in the tournament, etc) where you should flat call a open raiser preflop with AK.

If there is open raiser in MP and a reraiser in LP, I will often go all in with AK from the blinds if I have them covered or close to it, and by folding they still have a lot of chips remaining. I would never just call OOP with AK, but in some cases may decide to fold.


The key to getting 4th or better is to have few showdowns. The only way to do this is to come over the top in a big way when you have a hand that can stand up to most ranges, and then hope for folds. I'd say an average range for MP open raisers is AT+, 88+ , KQ which consists of 9.2% of hands ( 122 combinations) What will a typical player call a 12xBB reraise with? Let's say TT-AA, AQo+ . You must consider that the chances of a player holding AA or KK is just 50% of what it would be if you didn’t have AK, and the chances of AK are reduced to 9/16 of normal.

For the mathematically inclined, there are only 49 hands out of 122 that will call the reraise, 3 are AA, 3 are KK, 9 are AK, 16 are AQ and 18 are TT-QQ.


To make the calculation simple, let’s assume both players are all in upon calling the reraise and you are not a blind.

60% win 100% of the time 4.5BB when player folds

40% of the time play for 25.5BBs

Of that 40%

37% win 45% of the time 25.5BB vs QQ<JJ<TT
18% of the time split pot for .75BB vs AK
33% win 75% of the time 25.5BB vs AQ
6% win 6% of the time 25.5BB vs AA
6.% win 31% of the time 25.5BB vs KK

The EV is minus -0.75 BBs for the 40% of the time that you are all in, and +4.5BB for the 60% of the time you don’t see a showdown for a net 2.5BB.

Even without the calculations, I know it is working in my modest sample, as you must accumulate chips to have a shot at 1st through 4th, and there is no way you can do that if AK is just “ worth a call”.

[JoaoPinto]

Have you read his 2nd book? He talks about stealing, restealing, pushing etc... against the right people at the right time. Certainly with hands much weaker than AK.

I don't re call a passage in either book that says you should always call with AK, especially not late in a tournament.

[SeriousStudent]

I skimmed HOH2 again, and except for Red Zone play, I don't see an example or text that advocates making a reraise of a preflop open raiser with AK, but I could be wrong. Could you point me to one?

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
I skimmed HOH2 again, and except for Red Zone play, I don't see an example or text that advocates making a reraise of a preflop open raiser with AK, but I could be wrong. Could you point me to one?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you understand the theory behind the surface of HOH2, you won't need a hardfast rule on how to play a specific hand.

[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
I skimmed HOH2 again, and except for Red Zone play, I don't see an example or text that advocates making a reraise of a preflop open raiser with AK, but I could be wrong. Could you point me to one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind "Action Dan" is one of the most conservative players ever.

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I skimmed HOH2 again, and except for Red Zone play, I don't see an example or text that advocates making a reraise of a preflop open raiser with AK, but I could be wrong. Could you point me to one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind "Action Dan" is one of the most conservative and most successful players ever and still would advocate a preflop reraise/push with AK in most situations late in tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I skimmed HOH2 again, and except for Red Zone play, I don't see an example or text that advocates making a reraise of a preflop open raiser with AK, but I could be wrong. Could you point me to one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind "Action Dan" is one of the most conservative and most successful players ever and still would advocate a preflop reraise/push with AK in most situations late in tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was referring to his deepstack play of AK, mainly covered in HOH1.

[SeriousStudent]

Agree that Dan would advocate in late stages, but I am advocating it in the early and middle stages as well. I'm pretty certain that Dan does not advocate that, and thats why, at least for on line play of $100 buy in and up, I believe HOH is "wrong".

[CopTHIS]

As a mathematician, I do like pretty numbers but such analysis is almost totally spurious. It has value of course, but saying that "that the chances of a player holding AA or KK is just 50% of what it would be if you didn’t have AK" isn't much help when someone actually does raise. They are less likely to have the holding in the first place, true, but if there are not many to act then not reraising because you are afraid of someone else having KK or AA is poor value. You have AK quite often, but AK v KK or AA very rarely.

Still, nice comments.

[betgo]

With deep money in a major tournament, it is OK to just call with AK. This is also true in a cash game.

With shallow money and bad loose players, you should generally reraise.

I generally like to reraise with AK with deep money in tournaments and cash games. For one thing, I don't want people to know a reraise is QQ-AA. Even if they are not keeping track of me, there is some deception in reraising with AK, as you can represent an overpair on the flop.