NL25 - river play

CesareBorgia · #1 09-15-2007, 07:10 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

I have not much on MP2. Sometimes he bluffs by overbetting. Otherwise, he appears to be fairly tight.

UTG+1 ($8.47)
MP1 ($24.50)
MP2 ($35.30)
MP3 ($32.32)
CO ($4.85)
Button ($4.20)
Hero ($29.66)
BB ($23.65)
UTG ($24.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1, MP3 folds.

Flop: ($3) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, MP2 calls $1.25.

Turn: ($5.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $2.25, MP2 calls $2.25.

River: ($10) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Should Hero bet or check here? If Hero should bet, how much should he bet?

I think that MP2 is most likely to have hit the ace to make top pair. He could also have hit second pair on the flop, but since another queen appeared on the turn, this is less likely. I don't have any reason (yet) to believe that he has a monster hand, but the possibility is in the back of my head.

LearningCurve · #2 09-15-2007, 08:48 AM

Unfortunately, your bets here make it really hard to play your hand. They are just too small to really know what villain's calls mean. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

As played I would c/c any reasonably-sized river bet. However, if we were starting from scratch I'd bet more the whole way.

Starting with PF, I'd make it $1.50 to go. Not only are there two limpers, but it's so darn hard to play OOP. On the flop I'd bet between 2/3 and 3/4 of the pot. There is no FD here so I'm good with 2/3 but I don't want to bet any less than that as we want to be getting value from TP, MP, or any SD. On the turn we now hope he wasn't playing with the Q but like you said, I really do think a weaker A is more likely. For this street I like between 1/2 and 2/3 pot.

If he has now called the first two streets even though our bets were good-sized, we have a decision to make on the river. We are OOP and we can't be sure what villain has. Merely checking now is asking for villain to bluff us out, but I'm not really wanting to put much more into our hand. I think here I would make a smallish river block and fold to a raise.

ranka · #3 09-15-2007, 08:51 AM

Yes, bet more each strees as LearningCurve said. Also I would check/call the river.

Vecernicek · #4 09-15-2007, 08:53 AM

Value bet $5, fold to big raise.

ranka · #5 09-15-2007, 08:59 AM

I think the value bet is very bad idea. In these limits (I also playing these NL25 and NL50) hanging tons of fishes who think the AT, A9 is powerhouse hand and they will shove after your value bet. (they may do same with AQ) And you fold the best hand.

Easiest/cheapest way is to check, let him bet and call it down. If he check behind he wont call your value bet anyway.

Vecernicek · #6 09-15-2007, 09:05 AM

Hmm, maybe, but A9, AT, AJ, or calling this bet a lot at this level.

PokerFun007 · #7 09-15-2007, 09:08 AM

As played, my value bet is $3 and fold if he shoves.

ship_it_trebek · #8 09-15-2007, 12:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Easiest/cheapest way is to check, let him bet and call it down. If he check behind he wont call your value bet anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok let's say he fires PSB, are you still calling?

Mike Kelley · #9 09-15-2007, 01:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the value bet is very bad idea. In these limits (I also playing these NL25 and NL50) hanging tons of fishes who think the AT, A9 is powerhouse hand and they will shove after your value bet. (they may do same with AQ) And you fold the best hand.

Easiest/cheapest way is to check, let him bet and call it down. If he check behind he wont call your value bet anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

So by your logic vb/snap call. If they play A9 like it's a powerhouse. Which I have never seen a villain who called-called-RR A/I with A9

I think VB/fold is the best line. You will get looked up by worse aces and trips with bad kickers.

CesareBorgia · #10 09-15-2007, 01:39 PM

In this hand, MP2 and I see the flop just the two of us and the flop is fairly ragged. There are no possible flush draws nor are there any possible open enders or double gut shot straight draws. I have top pair, top kicker. So either I have the best have and will be highly like to keep having the best hand on both the turn and the river or I have the worst hand and will keep it on the last two streets. That's why I think a bet of just below half the pot is appropriate. The bet was intended as a value bet. If the board texture were such that there was a possible flush draw, for instance, I would have bet a larger amount: about 3/4 of the pot, as you proposed. However, there is no flush draw possible here.

On the other hand, I am more often criticised on the 2+2 forum for not betting enough and like everyone on this forum, I'm trying to learn something here. So do you think that, if MP2 would hold, say, K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], he would have proper odds on the flop to call? If so, you may convince me to bet more in similar situations in the future.

Your opinion appears to be that MP2 would play his hand in a very different way if my bets were larger. Why do you give most of the NL25 players credit for considering bet sizes? The fact that you and I consider bet sizes does not mean that our opponents, who do not study the game as well as we do, also do so.