JJ hand, late...

[Scuba Chuck]

I haven't done a poll in a while...

Blinds 100/200

UTG 1740
MP 770
CO 885
Button (hero) 995
SB 4200
BB 1410

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG raises to t400, 1 fold, CO raises to t885 (allin), hero??

[fartin247]

Maybe I'm missing something, but after a raise and a re-raise all-in, that JJ has officially become garbage.

As if it were much more than garbage before said raise and re-raise.

If you could open the pot, then its got great potential for a double up, but at best you're probably 55/45.

[Exitonly]

if the reraise wasn't for 4.5 BB i might give it more credit.. i think i'm good here enough.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
if the reraise wasn't for 4.5 BB i might give it more credit.. i think i'm good here enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, the reraise could be KJ from that stack. UTG minraise? lol...im guessing 44-TT...rarely a monster, and rarely AK...if so, god bless him and use my chips wisely...Im all-in.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm missing something, but after a raise and a re-raise all-in, that JJ has officially become garbage.

As if it were much more than garbage before said raise and re-raise.

If you could open the pot, then its got great potential for a double up, but at best you're probably 55/45.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh-hem. You're missing the size of the blinds.

Anyhow, what poses an interesting challenge to me is that the pfr is UTG (which suggests a pretty strong hand, generally) and that he's getting 3.8:1 pot odds to call, and relatively, he has the means to make that kind of call.

[fartin247]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm missing something, but after a raise and a re-raise all-in, that JJ has officially become garbage.

As if it were much more than garbage before said raise and re-raise.

If you could open the pot, then its got great potential for a double up, but at best you're probably 55/45.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh-hem. You're missing the size of the blinds.

Anyhow, what poses an interesting challenge to me is that the pfr is UTG (which suggests a pretty strong hand, generally) and that he's getting 3.8:1 pot odds to call, and relatively, he has the means to make that kind of call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I failed to take into account the size of the blinds. Thanks for pointing that out.

Even still, you just got through the blinds, and you've got 2 or 3 more freebies before you're back in. I think you've gotta hope for an A or K in those hands and get yours in first.

Like you, I'm not so much afraid of the all-in reraise as I am of the UTG raise, unless you've got a read on UTG. The best you can hope for in either hand is a lower PP, but you've gotta believe the best you can be against the best of the 2 is 55%.

Does the gap concept not apply in shorthanded/shortstacked play?? I just think pushers are giving JJ way too much credit in this situation.

[andy_fish]

"I just think pushers are giving JJ way too much credit in this situation. "

Given the stack sizes and tourney situation...I don't think there is much of a choice. Triple up here and finish ITM or join another table. Do you think you are going to be able to start stealing like a mad man? Well...every single time you try you have to get though the big stack. Do you think you can wait for a better hand? How many hands can you wait? 3? 6 at the most? It would take remarkable luck...a lot more luck than it would take to win a 3 handed showdown with JJ.

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm missing something, but after a raise and a re-raise all-in, that JJ has officially become garbage.

As if it were much more than garbage before said raise and re-raise.

If you could open the pot, then its got great potential for a double up, but at best you're probably 55/45.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh-hem. You're missing the size of the blinds.

Anyhow, what poses an interesting challenge to me is that the pfr is UTG (which suggests a pretty strong hand, generally) and that he's getting 3.8:1 pot odds to call, and relatively, he has the means to make that kind of call.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has less than 8x the BB, so he has to make a move sooner or later. The next hand, the blinds hit him and he looses 300 of his 1740, more than 1/6 of it.

The raiser has less than 4.5x the BB and is about to lose more than a third of it in the blinds. He's dying to get his money in the pot VERY soon. And the UTG has just shown potential weakness by only min-raising. This should encourage him to bet fairly marginal hands, too. Since fairly marginal hands don't want to see flops as much as steal blinds, a push is better than a call. A min-raise would pot commit anyway so again there's another reason to push.

Looks to me like you've got two people who both have strong reasons to be in the pot without very good cards. Probably the main question is whether the initial min-raiser will call not just a push but a second push after that. Your position and re-pushing indicate a lot of strength. A guy who only wants to min-raise would probably not want to be in there against you.

That all seems to recommend pushing. A pair of jacks might easily be the best hand you see before you get knocked out, because those blinds are coming after your stack real soon too, and you'll soon be throwing all your money in repeatedly with probably a lot worse than jacks.

Conversely, if the reraiser gets to scoop the pot when everybody folds, he has just added on 700 chips that put him in third place, and bumped you down in comparison. Your situation doesn't look a whole lot brighter if you fold. But it could look 1585 richer if you isolate agaisnt CO and win, putting you in a very solid second place, and even richer if you beat two players instead of one.

[Paul Thomson]

You have less than 5x the BB. Gotta double up.

[andy_fish]

CO is the short stack and could have any pair and any Ax, KJ+. Without a read...utg probably has 22 to 99 or AT+, Ax and KJ+ if he is really loose. You are 4th but pretty far behind 3rd. BB is 200 (going up when?) so you are at less than 5BBs...I think this is your tourney...if you fold CO is probably going to jump ahead of you and time is short at 4.5 BBs. Push.