2 really interesting hands from the LA WPT

[sirio11]

All my hands were pretty boring in this event, but some pretty interesting hands happened at my table. I really liked the following 2 hands:

Hand # 1:

Blinds 25-50, all stacks around 20k.
EP raises to 200, MP calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, EP bets 600, button calls, SB calls

Turn 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB checks, EP bets 1500, button raises to 3500, now SB raises to 10500. EP goes to the tank.

What are their holdings?
What should EP and button do?


Hand # 2:

Blinds 100-200 with 25 ante. EP has about 35k and MP has about 40k.

EP raises to 600, MP calls, button calls.

Flop is K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

EP bets 1500, MP calls, button folds.

Turn is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

EP bets 2500, MP calls.

River is 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

EP checks, MP bets 5k, EP goes to the tank and then raises to 12k, MP goes to the tank.

Edited to add this comment: A round before this hand, EP had raised in LP with 32d and showed after a 732 flop.

What are their most holdings?
What should MP do?

[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
All my hands were pretty boring in this event, but some pretty interesting hands happened at my table. I really liked the following 2 hands:

Hand # 1:

Blinds 25-50, all stacks around 20k.
EP raises to 200, MP calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, EP bets 600, button calls, SB calls

Turn 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB checks, EP bets 1500, button raises to 3500, now SB raises to 10500. EP goes to the tank.

What are their holdings?
What should EP and button do?



[/ QUOTE ]

I'll give it a go with my donkish reads:

- EP: has AA, 77, or AsKs; I'm thinking he has AA 60% of the time, 77 25% of the time, and AsKs 15% of the time. I doubt EP is going into the tank with AKo. Maybe AsQs/AsJs is an outside possibility. I really can't imagine EP thinking long about AsXs though -- seems like a pretty quick fold to me if he's got AsXs, since he's only getting 2 to 1 after SB puts in his more-than-pot-sized 10k turn raise, and he has to think he's up against a set/a straight, so he's not getting the right odds to call and hope to river the flush. Perhaps he has 55, but I'm assuming (perhaps wrongly) that he's not raising 55 from EP there. That sounds pretty aggro to me, but again, I might be wrong. It's not far away from raising 77 PF in the EP, which I'm giving him credit for, so perhaps I should give 55 more liklihood in his range.

Regardless, if I'm EP, I'm folding anything other than AA or 77 -- and I'm going into the tank with both of these. This is a great laydown if he can get off a set here.

- Button: the 3h on the turn isn't a scare card and EP fired another bullet, and it's still early, so unless the button has reason to think EP is especially tight, I doubt he's trying to buy this. I'm having a hard time figuring out the button's hand here, since we only know that EP went into the tank. I think the button has a huge range here -- and he very well could have turned the straight, or been trying to trap with a flopped set, since he may not have considered the SB would coming along for the ride on the flop, but now feels the need to get a little more aggro and end his trap of the EP since the SB called on the flop. Perhaps As3s, but that seems very unlikely. Regardless, if I'm the EP (like the button), I'm folding almost everything here if I haven't turned the straight (obviously, I'm not folding 64 here) or I didn't flop the set. Again, a great laydown by the button if he can get off a flopped set here. I know I couldn't make it.

- SB has either 77, 55, or 64 - and I think 77 and 55 are very unlikely, given that most people aren't check-calling that draw-heavy flop against 2 opponents. 64 makes sense to me, but that might be a loose call preflop OOP. He was getting a good price, though. 64 makes sense because, while he's got the nuts, it's still susceptible if he thinks either the EP or the button has one of those AsXs hands -- so his 10.5k turn raise fits in, especially because he knows how difficult it will be for the EP/button to laydown a set here. It's a great value bet that also protects against flush draws that might be out there.

I obviously don't play at these levels, so perhaps I'm wayyyyy off on the ranges here.

[Punker]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: What are their holdings?
What should EP and button do?


[/ QUOTE ]

EP has a solid ace hand, such as AQ and should fold. The two cold callers of an EP raise are likely to have one of two class of hands: monster, or speculative drawing type hand. I suspect both are in the speculative drawing type situation. SB clearly has a very strong situation; I'm guessing some sort of made hand that flopped a big draw such as 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and made it on the turn, or flopped a set of fives or sevens.

The button is hard to speculate; at this point he could either be made or not made. The pot is just over 18,000 and he has to call 7,000 more. His small turn raise doesn't really seem "milky" to me, but rather a thin value raise for a free showdown, of the sort I might make with a shaky top pair and the nut flush draw. I'm going to suppose something like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and that he should fold.

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2: What are their most holdings?
What should MP do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Very difficult. Given the addition to the post, I suspect MP has a medium to strong hand, but a lot depends on his knowledge. For example, if he has something like KQ, he should likely check behind on the river as EP is likely to either have nothing or a monster; he's not so likely to have a worse K that can pay off. Assuming MP knows this, he should have a flush in this spot that he is playing passively on the flop/turn because its very possible EP has a 4, and will raise him if he tries to make a move at the pot. His river bet supports this idea. I'm thinking something like Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) - reraising is definitely possible, but I'd feel much more comfortable doing it if the trips on board were not so closely connected to other cards on the board (eg KT744, as that would prevent the full houses made by connectors that this player sounds capable of having).

As for EP, it sounds like he could have anything, but I suspect he's got a strong piece of this board but is mistakenly reading MP for a dry king and making a milking raise with what he expects to be the best hand.

That leaves MP in a difficult situation. I suspect MP has a very good hand, but that EP also has a very strong hand that he believes fully to be the best hand. The river checkraise especially is a brutally painful move to make in this spot.

In MP's spot, he should definitely fold any top pair (but I doubt sincerely that he has such a hand). Its a really cagey raise by EP, but I think it will have to be called. He'll beat a lower flush often enough to make it worth it.

[jlocdog]

Hand 1: Barring any random moves that these guys are making (total bluffs or just plain monkey moves) I think the EP has a big ace. Lets say AJs+. The button calls his preflop and flop bet with either two pair like A7s or hit a set of 33',55's,77's. The SB calling OOP has either a set as well or a random 64spade, flush, straight draw, or a combo of the two.

EP should definetly dump. The button might need to go to the felt here as SB range is just a bit too big. If button has small set (33) than he may be able to dump. But mid or high set (I am dislcuding a set of aces here) and a call is in order.

Hand 2: I find it interesting that EP bets the pot on the flop indicating serious strength or really wanting the MP to dump and then refines his bet to 60% of the pot on the turn. Was he jamming trips and then setting up a river move with a smaller bet and a check? Was he semibluffing a flush draw?

The MP looks to have hit either the king (AK,KQ,KJs) or maybe loose called with A4s. After seeing the EP be recless earlier he thought his implied odds were good enough to call with position. The problem I am having is the MP still has people to act behind him so a loose call like that is extremely vulnerable.

Yet KK/AA could get away with this type of smooth call. Then they either wait for a squeeze attempt or they have position and their hand is well disguised. Obviously if this is the case then a call is mandatory. With the former (A4s,Kx,) you gotta dump. I don't put the MP on a flush draw only because he wasn't really being given good odds and their is a pair on the board. The combination of the two vs. a maniac still doesn't pay out in implied odds form.

[billyjex]

In hand 1 anyone who doesn't have 64 should probably fold.

[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
In hand 1 anyone who doesn't have 64 should probably fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

The more I think about it...the more I believe SB's range is alot wider than I previously gave him credit for. Given that we had previously concluded someone with a top set should probably fold, I think the SB can make this play with a very wide range, and doesn't need the nuts to do it. It's awfully read dependent, but a crafty SB could certainly be thinking at this level, especially at a $10k buy-in event. If I'm the EP or the button, and I think the SB is creative enough, I can open up the SB's range, since (at least upon initial inspection) we *should* be folding anything except 64 and (if I think the SB is shrewd enough) I think the SB knows that.

Given that the SB's range is probably wider than previously thought, I could perhaps be convinced that either the EP or the button could call with a set and/or one of those AsXs hands and be correct to do so. I'm still rapid-mucking anything like AKo in case (when added to the possibility that the SB really does have 64) the SB is semi-bluffing with an OESD+FD (8s6s or something like that), but I can be convinced a call is correct.

If the SB doesn't have a monster here, he's putting alot of confidence in his read that both the EP and the button could laydown AA or 77 here. I certainly don't many who could get away from something like AA here, but then again, I don't play many $10k events.

[iloseulose]

dvault: i disagree, and i think u are overthinking this hand. the SB would not semi-bluff to rely on AA or 77 to fold, that would be wayyyy too risky and honestly, pretty stupid. these players have screamed nothing but strong hands, and nobody would ever reraise in that position unless hes got atleast a set. remember this is an "in-the-moment" kind of thing. this guy is not reraising hoping to semi-bluff a top/middle set. this guy is raising with what he thinks is the best hand (which most likely is)

[iloseulose]

HAND 1...
EP: AK - FOLDDDDDDDD
BUTTON: 77 - he cant get away from this..hes gona call
SB: 46 (possibly 46 of spades)

[iloseulose]

HAND 2...
EP: i think his showing of 32s earlier was to let the table know he could be playing with any 2 cards, and they better stay away from him. in this hand, hes representing 43s or 45s and i believe him.
MP: i think hes got the flush but not the nut flush..27k pot and 7k more to call. poor guy is gona have to call with those odds

[beenben]

without reading other replies -

hand 1- SB has the current nuts. 6/8 spades. EP has AsKs. Button has the sucker str8 (2/4).

everybody else should fold

hand 2- MP made his flush and is worried about EP having the FH or quads. I don't think he has it- just representing it.