Gaining faith in your stats

[Rob*]

Hi,

I'd like to voice a question that I've been puzzling over for a while.

At what stage do you begin to have a high degree of faith in your recorded stats of your SNG results?

Obviously looking at several hundred SNG's may not have allowed for variance and downswings. The question is how many SNGs would give you that high degree (let's say 95%+) of confidence that you were close to tracking your real ROI figure?

My own feeling is about 2,500 SNGs but I'd be interested to hear if anyone has a different view or even better, experience to back it up.

Rob.

[bluefeet]

Hi Rob, welcome to the forum. The FAQ ("how are my stats") takes a stab at this age-old question. Folks throw around '1k' as reasonable number, but for those that have played 10x that amount are far too familiar with swings that can extend to this 1k mark and beyond (see bigjoe's chart in the 'SNGICON' thread).

Basically, we're never 'there' [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ...but after a thousand or two, you should have at least gained enough experience & comparison through observation I'd think, to have a decent feel for how you're doing.

Check out RVG's ROI simulator here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post5736082

...can be fun to play around with the probability stuff.