The dirty little secret about Miller's book for players with PT

WhiteShirt · #1 09-13-2005, 01:45 AM

Do yourself a favor and read this post, you have already spent all that time reading so many books that you should read this post and understand why those books are coming up short.

here is a conclusion i came to recently to illustrate how a good 2+2 player who understands postflop play can break even.

run this very simple filter to see where you stand..

in the filter window select "not a blind"...a good player will win .07 bb/hand outside the blinds, so if you are there or above that stat..well done..if you are below then you have some work to do.

please read on

now go to the positions tab and look at your bb and sb positions. if you lose more than (.20) from the bb and more than (.09) from the sb then you have some work to do. chances are if you make .07 in the other filter but lose too much from the blind positions then you are probably playing too tight from the blinds.

here is where i blow your mind...

lets say "Joe" plays $2-4 and has played 50k hands so far in pt. he makes .07 outside of the blinds (which is 77% of your total hands played). so he has made $10,780 outside the blinds. now from the bb he loses (.28) per hand. that means he lost $6440 from the bb and lets say he loses (.11) from the sb = $2530.
so his profit is $1810 over 50k hands which = 0.90 bb/100
that is not a good average.

now lets take "Joe" and improve his blind play alone.
he still makes $10,780 from outside the blinds, but now he only lose (.16) from the bb. thats a loss of $3680 and he loses (.07) from the sb for a loss of $1610. now his total profit is $5490 which is now 2.74 bb/100 !!!

thats a big diff. huge
and that is how alot of good players continue to get break even results. (the dirty little secret is that miller never talks about blind play in his book and THAT is why so many good players cant reach 2bb/100)

Bodhi · #2 09-13-2005, 01:52 AM

A lot of people aren't going to take you seriously because you're new here, but I think your post is well reasoned. The only thing I'm not so sure about is whether it's Ed's "dirty little secret."

I think blind defense/offense isn't dicussed much in SSHE because in most live small stakes games you rarely have to worry about it. Online 2/4 is much tighter, and so this skill becomes much more important.

Fwiw, I win .08bb/100 hands outside the blinds, and lose .21 in the BB and .12 in the SB.

WhiteShirt · #3 09-13-2005, 01:55 AM

yeah i get your point about ed, im just tryig to drive home how millers book wont give you all the tools you need to make 2bb/100 online

ncboiler · #4 09-13-2005, 09:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yeah i get your point about ed, im just tryig to drive home how millers book wont give you all the tools you need to make 2bb/100 online

[/ QUOTE ]

The claim was never made by Ed or anyone that knows what they are doing and has read the book that SSH gives anyone all the tools they need.

ajml · #5 09-13-2005, 02:03 AM

This is an interesting post. There is still plenty of other areas your game needs to be improved in order to make 2BB/100 I believe. FWIW, over 50,000 I am only at 1BB/100, outside the blinds I am at .07 p/hand, on the BB I lose .19 and the SB I lose .10. Looks like I am doing something else wrong

Bodhi · #6 09-13-2005, 02:07 AM

That's crazy. I only make .01bb/100 more outside the blinds, lose more in the blinds, but make more than twice as much as you per 100 hands (from a total sample of 49k at euro, but that includes 20k 1/2 hands).

ajml · #7 09-13-2005, 02:38 AM

bohdi- I have no idea what that means and I certainly cant prove it but that leads me to believe that these numbers arent really based upon anything and should not be used as a performance guide

newhizzle · #8 09-13-2005, 02:11 AM

i have a .06 outside the blinds and a -.23 in BB and -.11 in small blind, so whats your advise?

lozingitall · #9 09-13-2005, 10:29 PM

Outside: .08 BB/100
SB: (.10) BB/100
BB: (.23) BB/100

2/4 Limit Holdem. Again, someone mentioned this above but the limit and the blind structure matters a lot here in determining your blind BB/100 numbers. Also, you need a lot of hands to accurately determine your blind play. In a 10k hand sample, you only see the SB around 1k times. We all know the amount of variance in 1k hands.

I've found that most of my losing streaks are caused because of higher then average losses in the blinds.

Lozing

lozingitall · #10 09-13-2005, 10:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I've found that most of my losing streaks are caused because of higher then average losses in the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I just checked pokertracker and was unable to confirm this. Comments would be appreciated. It always seemed this way to me but I couldn't find the stats to back it up that easily.

Lozing