live 10-25: very deep stack KK oop vs a lag

[mikech]

borgata 10-25 last night; the game was playing pretty tight until the villain sat down about an hour ago. he put ~20k on the table, and it quickly became apparent that the man was here to gamble. he was not utterly braindead (hence he shall hereafter be referred to as NUB), but he was dumb enough, and dangerous enough, that he was gonna either win or lose a lot of money. here are a few of the other hands he got involved in before my hand with him:

flop ATx checked around; turn makes a 3-spade board and sb fires 300, NUB calls; river o/s J and sb bets 500, NUB raises to 2k. sb calls with a 7-high flush, NUB shows KQ no spade.

flop 986, NUB bets 400, gets c/r'ed to 1400, he calls. turn is another 9, c/r'er leads 1k, NUB raises 2k more, c/r'er pushes for 6k total, NUB calls with T9. c/r'er's flopped straight holds up.

he also bet 500 on the river on a 4-diamond board with the 9d and paid off a c/r to 2k by the ace of trump. and just a couple hands before my hand came up, he put in 4k preflop with JJ and spiked a set to bust AA.



ok, sorry for the long preamble but i wanted to give all of you the same info i had: basically, he was ready, willing, and eager to put his money into play. so anyhow, we're 7-handed at the time, utg with a 3k stack limps, NUB limps on the button, i make it 200 straight from the sb with KK and 10k behind, utg and NUB call.

flop is 876 all spades, i have the K of spades. how should i proceed in the following situations:

scenario 1) i bet 350, utg folds, NUB makes it 1k to go. i do what? if i decide to play on, what card(s) would i like to see on the turn? what is my plan for the rest of the hand?

scenario 2) i check, utg bets 250, NUB makes it 750. i do what? if i decide to play on, what card(s) would i like to see on the turn? what is my plan for the rest of the hand?

[aggie]

Hey mike,

Both these scenario's are crappy spots to be in

scenario 1: call flop and proceed very cautiously. You want to see a spade or King. If you don't catch one, i'd be willing to check-fold the turn.

scenario 2: I actually like checking the flop better to control pot size. Given the action and the fact that we're now caught in the middle i think we need to fold.

[xorbie]

scenario 2 sucks, id really rather bet out here. from read on nub sounds like bet bet bet and if he raises just call down.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
from read on nub sounds like bet bet bet and if he raises just call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Problem with this is we're quickly gonna find ourselves in a spot where we have to put all of our chips in the pot. If NUB raises flop and then bets pot on turn and river and we call, we'll be allin. Do you really want to put in 400bb's with an overpair on this board?

[LyinKing]

mike, OT, but how was the action/competition level and general crowdedness of the Borgata last night given the tournament? I meant to make it over to observe (no chance I was jumping into 10-25) but never left the 5/10 at the Taj.

[mikech]

[ QUOTE ]
mike, OT, but how was the action/competition level and general crowdedness of the Borgata last night given the tournament? I meant to make it over to observe (no chance I was jumping into 10-25) but never left the 5/10 at the Taj.

[/ QUOTE ]
action was decent, but there were also some very good players in the games, so you had to pick your spots. there were two 10-25s going last night, but after NUB left our game at 1 a.m. the table broke instantly. although i heard that the 25-50 they got going was playing pretty crazy.

[AZK]

I think you gotta bet, I like a check better if you have red kk. I call any raise NUB makes. Give us a turn.

[epdaws]

The biggest problem we're facing here is that NUB has not been firing away and raising with air. He seems to be a LAG who overvalues moderate hands, but he's not in there unless he believes he's got the best of it. He's wrong often enough, but this is one hell of a coordinated flop.

So I'll take a stab:

1) I think it's decision time already. Your hand is strong in light of the Villain, but it will lose strength with a blank turn. I don't like calling here, because you're going to blank that turn 3 out of 4 times, and what happens then? Check/fold? Your entire stack will be at play very quickly.

So to me, it's raise or fold, and I actually lean toward mucking here. You're likely to have plenty of clear shots at NUB, especially if the table remains 7-handed for a while. But I also believe that you're ahead here quite often, with a pretty nice redraw. Making it 3500 could be delicious against this Villain.

Ultimately, I think raising = folding > calling.

2) Pretty easy muck, in my opinion. You've got UTG already willing to tangle on that uber-coordinated flop, and NUB is challenging him. It may seem weak, but again, I think NUB will offer some better spots HU compared to 3-way. Not that I mind 3-ways.

[gaash]

Is the guy Sam, older guy with the elephant?

[xorbie]

i dunno, to me it seems like if nub has TT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] here hes going to go all the way with it, and we have him beat soo much more than he has us beat that i would really, really, really hate to lose value here.