continuation bets losing money, how do I adjust?

[Dommer]

Out of curiousity I recently started recording what I was winning/losing with continuation bets. I include times where I have KK/QQ/JJ and an overcard hits because I don't really want a call there and will have to give up to any aggression. Well in just this past day of playing I've lost 100$ just on continuation bets, which is what I thought. I'm losing money by continuation betting.

So.... I am profitable with AK/AQ/AJ and all pair type hands, so obviously continuation betting isn't making me unprofitable here, and its possible I am just running bad. But it definitely does seem like a leak, how do I adjust my play accordingly? Raising AK/AQ/AJ seems really pointless if you aren't going to make a continuation bet, it seems like you are going to get the pot taken away from you very often. Limping them sucks as well. Well I have no idea what I need to do, any ideas?

PS. I only try continuation bets against 1-2 opponents and I usually bet near pot size (7 into 8, 8 into 10, etc)

[BZ_Zorro]

Options:

1. Stop doing them. (not a bad option) &
2. Raise so you get 3-4 callers, that way you're always drawing with odds and don't need to continuation bet.

3. Don't continuation bet heads up, do it into 2-4 players. Amazingly, this works even better than heads up if you bet large enough.

4. Make it larger.

5. Don't do it every time you raise, it's too predictable.

[Dommer]

[ QUOTE ]
Options:

1. Stop doing them. (not a bad option) &
2. Raise so you get 3-4 callers, that way you're always drawing with odds and don't need to continuation bet.

3. Don't continuation bet heads up, do it into 2-4 players. Amazingly, this works even better than heads up if you bet large enough.

4. Make it larger.

5. Don't do it every time you raise, it's too predictable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some good points, thanks for the ideas.

Do you think you could elaborate on point #2? I don't quite understand.

I like point #3, they are a lot less likely to call you with trash hands like bottom pair if its 3-4 way and you pot it. Then again, its more likely someone hit a big hand like a set etc. But now that I thinka bout it when its multi-way my continuation bets seem to work pretty decently.

[Anacardo]

[ QUOTE ]
2. Raise so you get 3-4 callers, that way you're always drawing with odds and don't need to continuation bet.

3. Don't continuation bet heads up, do it into 2-4 players. Amazingly, this works even better than heads up if you bet large enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sell these to me, 'cause I ain't buyin'. Mathematically you're far more likely to be behind against 2-4 than you are headup. Are you saying the psychological power of "He's betting into three of us, must have something" can overcome this? How? And I don't think I even understand #2. Why would you want to encourage a multiway pot with offsuit high cards?

[Dommer]

[ QUOTE ]
Sell these to me, 'cause I ain't buyin'. Mathematically you're far more likely to be behind against 2-4 than you are headup. Are you saying the psychological power of "He's betting into three of us, must have something" can overcome this? How? And I don't think I even understand #2. Why would you want to encourage a multiway pot with offsuit high cards?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think with #3 you are representing a big pair far more believably and they just aren't going to call you down with a small pp or bottom pair or the bs they call with heads up. Realistically if it ever gets multi-way and I have a pp and I bet near the pot its almost always folded around and if its not I'm usually beat anyways. It'd have to be tested I guess. I'd say about 3 players is the max to try it with though, 4 is probably pushing it.

[Python49]

I'd love to see a response to this from other players as well because i know today it seemed like every time I got AK AQ or AJ and raised, everyone and their mama was eager as could be to get in there and raise my continuation bet on the flop. But when I had AA->JJ everyone just folds pre flop and I take down the blinds.. wonderful. And then ofcourse when you decide to look someone up with 88 or try to play back at someone with AK on a missed board you just end up getting burnt. I noticed at the 10/20 pstars tables alot of players dont continuation bet at all when raising pre flop. I've been trying to think of a way to figure out when to continuation bet and when not to and I think what im going to stat doing is paying close close close attention to the action of other players. Who is calling alot of pre flop raises, who's tight pre flop... on the flop who is willing to fold alot when missing the flop and who shows resistance? I will watch the action more closely so I know who is probably a good person I can continuation bet against and who simply isn't.

[Dommer]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd love to see a response to this from other players as well because i know today it seemed like every time I got AK AQ or AJ and raised, everyone and their mama was eager as could be to get in there and raise my continuation bet on the flop. But when I had AA->JJ everyone just folds pre flop and I take down the blinds.. wonderful. And then ofcourse when you decide to look someone up with 88 or try to play back at someone with AK on a missed board you just end up getting burnt. I noticed at the 10/20 pstars tables alot of players dont continuation bet at all when raising pre flop. I've been trying to think of a way to figure out when to continuation bet and when not to and I think what im going to stat doing is paying close close close attention to the action of other players. Who is calling alot of pre flop raises, who's tight pre flop... on the flop who is willing to fold alot when missing the flop and who shows resistance? I will watch the action more closely so I know who is probably a good person I can continuation bet against and who simply isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

You just worded what's been happening to me perfectly, preach on!

Yeah I think what you are saying about knowing the other player is prob the most sensible advice. Maybe the default action should be no continuation bet except against the 15/5 or less players. I also notice that if I build up a big stack my bets "seem" to be respected more. Nearly always doing a continuation bet is probably what you definitely DO NOT want to do whatever the case.

[dalerobk]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been trying to think of a way to figure out when to continuation bet and when not to and I think what im going to stat doing is paying close close close attention to the action of other players. Who is calling alot of pre flop raises, who's tight pre flop... on the flop who is willing to fold alot when missing the flop and who shows resistance? I will watch the action more closely so I know who is probably a good person I can continuation bet against and who simply isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the key. I've been getting my ass kicked with continuation bets too, so I started being much more selective about the situations in which I do them. Amazingly, they seem to work better HU and against someone who limps and then calls a raise with just about anything. My guess is this: they could have just about any two cards, paired or not, and the chances of them hitting top pair or having an overpair is very low. I don't know (because I normally have to fold), but I suspect that when tighter players, esp. behind me, call it's normally because they have a "small big pair"--ie 10-10, J-J, or Q-Q. When no overs hit, they take it as a green ligth to bet/raise away, or at least call my flop bet and then bet when I check the turn. Anyone else find this?

Anyway, CB against a weak player HU seem to be much more effective than against a stronger player, for me at least. I think this is because the stronger players actually have a real hand, well the weaker players have absolute BS.

[BZ_Zorro]

[ QUOTE ]
>2. Raise so you get 3-4 callers, that way you're always drawing with odds and don't need to continuation bet.
3. Don't continuation bet heads up, do it into 2-4 players. Amazingly, this works even better than heads up if you bet large enough.
Sell these to me, 'cause I ain't buyin'.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you want to encourage a multiway pot with offsuit high cards?

[/ QUOTE ]

2: I did a thread about this a while ago: 'AKo - conventional wisdom is wrong.' Most of the respected posters disagreed, a couple agreed. Basically, my point came down to this:

AKo is basically a drawing hand, and if you flop and A or K, it's very likely you have the best hand. Do the numbers if you don't believe me. This is because:
> Dominated hands are very unlikely to flop two pair (say KQ, AJ) at the same time you flop a pair (roughly 12%)
> SCs will flop a worthwhile hand 5.5% of the time (using all three flop cards).
> There is only an ~50% chance that someone has a pocket pair, and it's only hitting a set 8.5% of the time (1 time in 12) using two flop cards (the third is your A or K). So, ~4%
> A random hand will flop two pair or better less than 3% of the time.

Also, raising less with AKo gets weaker (Kx, Ax) hands to call that might not otherwise, and you can be guaranteed they're putting more money in when they hit top pair against a weak preflop raiser.

OP said he's constantly continuation betting heads up, and getting called/raised or having the pot stolen. This is bad. If you're not going to continuation bet, you're basically drawing for an A or K on the flop to continue with the hand, which is 1 in 3. In this case you want two or more people in the pot to make your 'draw' +EV. And just to clarify, you should be raising, both to build a pot and to limit the field somewhat, but going gung ho and trying to get AKo heads up is -EV imo.

3.
This come solely from my experiences. I've found that continuation betting into a large field (especially OOP), has the best results. Maybe others can add something.

[UOPokerPlayer]

This is really good, and I agree with you. Do you have a link to that thread.