reality check. odds on making the Nationwide Tour

brick · #1 08-18-2006, 10:22 PM

I'm currently an 8 handicap but I don't work on my game and only play once a week in the summer. I've never played a tournament before. I can hit my drives 300 yards and I have a pretty natural swing. I have good feel putting and chipping but need practice. I'm 27yo, 6ft. 180lbs.

Assuming a large # of players similar to my skill level took 1-2 years off work to to seriously training and practice for 6 hours per day. How many players would need to attempt this before one was talented enough to make the Nationwide tour?

for example 1/10,000

LBJ · #2 08-18-2006, 10:26 PM

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1/10,000

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tuq · #3 08-18-2006, 10:37 PM

Well good luck mang. I don't have an exact number but from experience can tell you that the difference between an 8 and say a 2 is HUGE. Absolutely huge. So is the difference between 2 and scratch. And I imagine most of those Nationwide guys are around +2 or better.

The issue is you'll probably reach several mental roadblocks along the way that would take a while to clear. And GOD FORBID your putting starts to go south.

I'm not saying don't do it - it's something you'd never forget (by the way, are you just curious or seriously considering it?), but I have enough friends on minitours to know it's way more of a "job" than us outsiders see. Countless hours at the range. Constant tweaking of swing and equipment. Winning the battles with the mind. Stiff competition. Battling the elements. Callouses and blisters. Fighting through long slumps.

I don't know if it's 1/10,000 but it's gotta be closer to that than 1/1000.

antidan444 · #4 08-18-2006, 10:43 PM

I'll give you props for getting the odds about right IMO. If anything, you may have put them too low. First thing I thought when I read "8 handicap" was "no chance."

brick · #5 08-18-2006, 10:48 PM

Hey. thanks for the reply.
I guess I'm seriously considering it among other options regarding what to do with the next few years of my life.
I've been working for 5 years and I'm ready for a change.

One option would be to buy a fixer-upper house to work on part time and play golf the rest of the time.

jthegreat · #6 08-18-2006, 10:51 PM

Unless you're loaded with natural talent that's just going to suddenly blossom... forget about it. My brother is 21, scratch golfer, has a pro card, etc... and he's nowhere near ready for that tour. Considering that you've never played in a tournament before, I'm guessing that you have no idea how brutal competitive golf can be.

brick · #7 08-18-2006, 10:54 PM

I do have lots of natural talents that I'd like to let loose.

Double Eagle · #8 08-20-2006, 11:25 PM

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And I imagine most of those Nationwide guys are around +2 or better.

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Umm not even close. My neighbor's son is a Freshman at Stanford on a golf scholarship. He won the California State high school championship as a senior and when he left for Stanford was a +3 handicap.

That said he's only the sixth best player on his college team (a team which last year was not very good.) Everyone in this thread is seriously underestimating the difference between even the best amateur players and touring professionals.

As for the original post I would say based on the criteria laid out that the number is so large that it might as well be infinity.

tuq · #9 08-21-2006, 12:04 AM

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And I imagine most of those Nationwide guys are around +2 or better.

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Umm not even close. My neighbor's son is a Freshman at Stanford on a golf scholarship. He won the California State high school championship as a senior and when he left for Stanford was a +3 handicap.

That said he's only the sixth best player on his college team (a team which last year was not very good.) Everyone in this thread is seriously underestimating the difference between even the best amateur players and touring professionals.

As for the original post I would say based on the criteria laid out that the number is so large that it might as well be infinity.

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Unless your number of "umm"s is so large that it might as well be infinity, then you can save them for a better spot.

Did you see the post just a few above yours that said until Tiger went nutso in 2000 that the all-time record for HDCP among PGA Tour pros was like +7.6? While I could see where pros have gotten better in the past six years, I seriously doubt they've improved so much that its own minitour is not far removed from "around +2 or better". I built in a margin of error for a reason.

Double Eagle · #10 08-21-2006, 02:28 PM

Well any attempt to plug PGA tournament scores into the USGA handicap is silly because the USGA does not rate courses as set up for tournament play (the 7.6 number seems to be taken from the normal back tee rating of 75/144.) I would imagine Pebble Beach as set up for the US Open would have a course rating pushing 80, which would give Tiger an average differential of 11 for all 4 rounds.

Here is a thread on rec.sports.golf where a fringe Tour player does actually have a real USGA handicap of +6.4. I would imagine this is probably about where most Nationwide-caliber players would fall.