($33) AK: missed flop and mini-checkraised

[billxo1b]

1st level, no read.

PartyPoker Big Blind is t40 (10 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1910)
UTG+1 (t1960)
MP1 (t2420)
Hero (t1910)
MP3 (t2000)
CO+1 (t2000)
CO (t1870)
Button (t1810)
SB (t2120)
BB (t2000)

Preflop: Hero is in MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, UTG+1 calls t40, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="gray">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>, UTG+1 calls t110

Flop: (t360) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t200</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to t400</font>, Hero ?

[bigballz]

played fine, now fold

[billxo1b]

just seems that players at $33+ tend to checkraised often with air. is it a call and see what villain will do on turn an ok strategy? villain either has AA/KK/set or a mid pair or AT+, if villain checks on turn (==&gt;mid pair or A high), and a bluff will likely take the pot down.

[Shilly]

[ QUOTE ]
just seems that players at $33+ tend to checkraised often with air.

[/ QUOTE ]

While this may be true, I think you're smoked here. With the range of hands he's limping in with in EP, you have to be worried about a set or an overpair here. And I doubt two overcards are going to check/minraise you here, so he's almost never bluffing. I fold.

[Shilly]

Also, if you do improve on the turn, he probably will not pay you off with a worse hand, and you'll probably get stacked if he has a set. I think this spot defines "reverse implied odds."

[bigballz]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if you do improve on the turn, he probably will not pay you off with a worse hand, and you'll probably get stacked if he has a set. I think this spot defines "reverse implied odds."

[/ QUOTE ]
yup, nh

[VK_Rick]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if you do improve on the turn, he probably will not pay you off with a worse hand, and you'll probably get stacked if he has a set. I think this spot defines "reverse implied odds."

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the key here. My iniital reaction was that you had odds to see the turn -- it only costs t200 more. The problem is what turn would make you confident if villain bets again? If an A or K hits, you might win with a bet, but villain won't pay you off. If villain has a set, an A or K could be a disaster. And if an A comes you still have to worry that villain was playing a suited A and now has two pair.

I almost certainly would have called here, but after reading this post, I'm pretty convinced it's a mistake.

[AmazingErvin]

It's frustrating to get checkraised but there's really not much you can do. If you shove here every time against a standard opponent you're making a losing play. If this guy has checkraised you the last 12 times then by all means push but I doubt that's the case. Well played.

[mattak]

I remember another poster saying something like "while making a miniraise is stupid, folding to one is not." Just fold here.

[bruin]

flop bet is fine. Just fold after his raise.