Questionable Bluff-Catching Spot

[cbloom]

No Limit Hold'em Ring Game (6 max) , 5 players
Blinds : $2/$4

Stacks:
UTG : $732.48
CO : $378.40
BTN : $1274.30 (Hero)
SB : $533.50
BB : $113.50

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BTN with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $9</font>, CO folds, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($29, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $22</font>, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($73, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($73, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $85</font>, Hero ...


Villain is bad, like 50/15, likes to "outplay" people. I have a specific strong read that he overbets bluffs cuz they "look stronger". So I think he had missed diamonds here a lot. Of course you never know he's an FPS-tard he could have a lot of different things.

The question is what's the most +EV move now? Fold, call, or raise? (I think you could make arguments for each)

(ps. I don't usually cold-call this preflop but villain is awful and I have position and we're deep so I'm calling with a lot of hands)

[ikestoys]

don't really like it because he could easily have JJ-KK or 98

[steel108]

This is not diamonds to me and a call is certainly not profitable in this spot long term. Why wouldn't he bet the flop if he had diamonds? He doesn't have much of a hand, but it looks like he beats K high. Fold &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Raise &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Call

[ikestoys]

[ QUOTE ]
Why wouldn't he bet the flop if he had diamonds?

[/ QUOTE ]

because he is a losing player, remember to treat him as such

[cbloom]

Yeah I dunno if missed diamonds is the most likely hand, maybe he would CR diamonds on the flop or do something else weird. Maybe he was going for a turn CR and missed it.

I should state what I do know for a fact :
he's weird, FPSy, &amp; bad
he likes to play tricky with his good hands, so he could have some monster here maybe
he likes to overbet bluff

[ikestoys]

then why would you do this?

just value the [censored] out of him

[tufat23]

A4o just pozzed u, unless ure specific read is good. forget bluff catching, id rather go 2 streets of valuetown with K high.

[cbloom]

[ QUOTE ]
A4o just pozzed u, unless ure specific read is good. forget bluff catching, id rather go 2 streets of valuetown with K high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cuz if I bet the turn and he has diamonds he likely check-raises, or will lead the river anyway when he misses and I'm in the same spot with a much bigger pot.

eg. he's not gonna c-c the turn and check the river. He just can't stand to never bet or raise somewhere in a hand.

edit : I guess whole hand is questionable and I'm open to thoughts; obviously I know I can just wait for monsters and valuetown him.

[Mez]

A 50/15 raising UTG is usually going to be a better hand than KJ. He could be bluffing with 66 or KQ, maybe backed into spades. I'm not a fan of looking him up in this spot. But if your read is that strong, and you think he can raise UTG with JQ, K9, Q9 or even 56 (which you'd think he'd limp with) go for it. Still, I'm having a hard time thinking of hands you beat.

[fees]

this is too close to call (what I mean is, if ur read isnt strong enough for you not to post it, then just fold) since he's a 50/15 he's free monies so long as he stays in the game.
Wait for a better spot