Hedge this Superbowl bet?

dknightx · #1 01-05-2006, 02:09 PM

at about 1/4 through the NFL season, I placed a $100 bet on the Seahawks winning the superbowl at +2300. Now that the seahawks have a first round bye, should I hedge all three games? Or go with my chances that they make the superbowl and then hedge that game? My main concern is that the seahawks will most likely be the favorite for all games leading up to the superbowl (so betting the moneyline would be beneficial), however, if they meet Indy in the superbowl, then they will most likely be the dog (+3?) which makes hedging that game not as useful. Or should I just go with my chances, and see if seattle can pull it out? BTW, $2300 is quite a bit of my BR, so I would be happy to see at least $1000.

mrbaseball · #2 01-05-2006, 02:22 PM

Nah don't hedge. GO FOR IT! That's the fun part of these bets anyway. I made a similar bet ($50 on the Bears at 60-1) which was phenominal at the time since they were in first place and looked pretty good to win their division and make the playoffs. They have since matured into a legitmate contender.

My Bears though if they make it past the first game will be likely dogs and mainly unhedgable. But screw hedging, the real edge in these types of bets is only realized by cashing the big prize.

playersare · #3 01-05-2006, 02:28 PM

pinnacle offers this futures line right now:

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Superbowl XL ?
Yes +600
No -700

when you bought in early at +2300, the theoretical "no" was probably around -3000. so now your lead is guaranteed profitable because the current market price gives you a net of +1600.

since you currently have $100 to win $2300, you can just hedge a minumum of $700 to win $100 to break even, or any amount higher to ensure a profit either way.

for example, you can lay $2100 to win $300, and pocket $200 no matter what happens. the majority of your expectation hangs on Seattle winning the whole thing, but even if they don't, it's virtually impossible not to structure it in a way that you don't at least double your original risk amount.

hedging the other 3 bye teams to win can still be risky, if none of them make it to the final game. and the amount you'd have to lay on the colts alone, will eat up the majority of your cushion.

if you lay $1400 to win $200 on the "no", then you still get $100 profit if the seahawks are eliminated, but $900 if they win the superbowl. that might be a reasonable risk/reward split.

vilemerchant · #4 01-05-2006, 04:02 PM

If seattle will be the favourite in the next few games why not just bet the spread on their opponents? Bet say $250 each week to lock in a little profit if they lose, plus your always the chance of hitting a sort-of middle. ie/ Seattle win by 1 point and you're one step closer to the prize PLUS you win the spread bet on whoever who were +3

Just an idea [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

DougOzzzz · #5 01-05-2006, 04:19 PM

to be honest, I think the "No" at -700 might even be +EV.

Right now the NFC are 10 point dogs to the AFC. That corresponds to about a 20% chance to win just that game. Meaning Seattle has to NOT reach the SB only about 40% of the time to make the "No" +EV.

PropPlayer · #6 01-06-2006, 12:10 AM

I placed a bet on Chicago arround week 14 or 15 $100 to win $2000. I been thinking the same about what I am going to do.
The problem is more for me as Chicago will likely be the Dog in all but there first game.

playersare · #7 01-06-2006, 12:33 AM

"no" on chicago is still -1700, so your hedge has lower +EV than OP's seattle bet. it's impossible to NOT make a profit on it, though it may be a very small profit.

craig · #8 01-06-2006, 12:47 AM

There is really only three reasons too hedge:

1) The money you will not win means more to you. So, if you had placed, for example, a 20:1 bet for $100 and you would like to lock up $500, instead of just risking the $100 to win $2K, then you should hedge. The problem with this is that you should have never placed the bet in the first place if the money was going to mean that much to you. If you placed the bet thinking it wouldn't happen anyways, then why did you place the bet. Unless of course...

2) The odds you are getting are actually worse, due to an injury, etc... Let's say you placed a 20:1 bet, but the chances aren't 1/21 (maybe due to an injury, suspension, etc... halfway through the season) that the team will win the Super Bowl, then maybe you should hedge. But, as is the case with Seattle, that looks pretty nice right now.

3) Like DougOzzzz alluded to, the other side is actually +EV.

craig

Jesse Kidd · #9 01-06-2006, 01:24 AM

I'm in the middle of doing the same thing. I placed 9 bets at the beginning of the season just for fun (actually got pretty lucky, only missed KC), and have the following shares (on wsex.com...each share pays out $100 if they win the SB)

WAS 72
DEN 60
JAX 40
SEA 35
CHI 26
PIT 25
TAM 21
NE 7

Anybody have any ideas as to how to lock in some cash? I was thinking maybe wait until we've got a final four, and then take it from there. I've got 4 teams from each conference...Obviously, a Colts upset would be huge, and I almost think that would be just as likely in their first game (NE/Jax prob) as anytime in the playoffs.