Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
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If you think your getting +EV I can't see how you pass it up. With 55% equity in calling all in you get + EV of t6675. However, if you only have 7500 (one time through blinds) you need a 59% equity edge to equal the 55 your getting now and if you let the blinds go through you again you'll need a 65% equity edge to equal what your getting now. These calculations assume that nobody picks up a big hand behind you to overcall. The relative Ms are 6, 5, and 4. Since your on the button your assuming you can find a better edge then 55% in the next 7 hands or an edge > 59% in the next 9 hands or > 65% in those next 9 hands. I think the odds are against you in picking up AK,JJ+ in those next two rounds or QQ-AA (I don't think AK has a 65% edge, I may be wrong) in the third round or AA and KK from then on. You need to gamble while you still have chips.
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These calculations are fine but they do not consider your chances of opening from MP and taking the blinds, thus sustaining your M at the current level at the very least and putting your opponents to a tough call. You do not NEED to pick up JJ+ in the next orbit to have a chance to make a play, the cards are almost irrelevant as you are looking for spots to maintain your M with blind steals while waiting for a bigger hand to double up with.
~Justin
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I think with this many people still you are looking to increase your "M". What if you win this hand and get favorable blind stealing situations? Does one really factor on the other because either may backfire but I want to win and if I give him a big enough range depending on his style I am definitely calling and still expecting for blind stealing situations.
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