[AvivaSimplex]

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Reaching $10 (adverse 11% move) would be non-trivial. It breaches the expected $9 top and invalidates my thesis for entry, which is based in part on historical price peaks in the recent past as stated in my post.

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Well, yeah, it invalidates your thesis, because yours is based on technical analysis. Price movement is obviously important for that. DesertCat's thesis is based on the fundamental idea that this is a company that can't function profitably at this size. Price movement without news doesn't have much impact.

I agree price movements can sometimes telegraph news events. I haven't seen that happening for this stock over the past 6 months at least. The two major events, hiring the new CEO and getting a filing extension from the NYSE, did not have anticipatory bumps in front of them. Also, there are several moves of 11% or greater without major news items.

Cat, had you considered buying May 06 puts? KKD will file their first financial statements between now and then. The new CEO has every incentive to make their position look as bad as possible. He doesn't want to go to prison for covering up someone else's mess, and the deeper the hole when he starts, the more credit he gets if he pulls them out. The only reason he might want to make them look good would be if he's afraid creditors will cut off support if they're obviously doomed.