Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
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If you think your getting +EV I can't see how you pass it up. With 55% equity in calling all in you get + EV of t6675. However, if you only have 7500 (one time through blinds) you need a 59% equity edge to equal the 55 your getting now and if you let the blinds go through you again you'll need a 65% equity edge to equal what your getting now. These calculations assume that nobody picks up a big hand behind you to overcall. The relative Ms are 6, 5, and 4. Since your on the button your assuming you can find a better edge then 55% in the next 7 hands or an edge > 59% in the next 9 hands or > 65% in those next 9 hands. I think the odds are against you in picking up AK,JJ+ in those next two rounds or QQ-AA (I don't think AK has a 65% edge, I may be wrong) in the third round or AA and KK from then on. You need to gamble while you still have chips.
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These calculations are fine but they do not consider your chances of opening from MP and taking the blinds, thus sustaining your M at the current level at the very least and putting your opponents to a tough call. You do not NEED to pick up JJ+ in the next orbit to have a chance to make a play, the cards are almost irrelevant as you are looking for spots to maintain your M with blind steals while waiting for a bigger hand to double up with.
~Justin
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