[Mr. Now]

First of all the time value decay in LEAPS is nil until about 1.5 years out. Even then it's minimal until about 9 months out. Therefore, you can roll them forward about 10 months out, for example rolling the Jan08 to Jan09 in the same strike.

Second, it's do or die technically for the stock price right now. It has to break out over 9 and will need serious buying power to do it. This level has been a near-term historical high in March and June of last year. Price remembers, and many miserable owners of this stock will be happy to get out at 9 in the coming days. There was alot of volume in March/April. That's positive for a short entry here and will tend to cap any movement higher.

I notice the volume has declined substantially in the past 3 days and is very low today. That is not a recipe for a big honking breakout from here. Add to this the fact that price is pushing outside the upper Bollinger band, a volatility-based measure of price based on recent price ranges.

Lastly we have the entire market at a recent all-time high, literally laughing in the face of 15 consecutive rate hikes and a 5-year high in the cost of money.

Your fundamental analysis looks very comprehensive. The chart is displaying an opportune time to short this.

The near-term reward to risk looks like this:

Enter short at around 9 stop 10, Risk = 1/9 or 11% for $1 a share. $10 proves you likely very wrong and provides a logical place to jump ship on this trade.

Previous low was 4, so target 4 based on your fundamental analysis. Reward = 5 points or 5/9, 55%

So what we have here is a 5:1 reward to risk ratio.

You can be right WAY less than 1/2 of the time to make money on this kind of deal. The convergence of $9-based resistance, sharply declining volume after a runup in price, other technical measures supporting favorable short entry, the recent high in the indexes (and sharp break today) as an overall supporting backdrop and your detailed fundamental analysis all point to a good place to enter short.

Thanks for bringing this to my attention.