[Phil153]

First of all:

EV = (How much you can win)*(probability of winning)- (How much you can lose)*(probability of losing)

Let the probability of winning be p. The breakeven point is:

0 = (90)(p) - (114)(1-p)
114 = 204p
p = 114/204 = 55.88% ~=56%

This is how often we need to win half the pot to make this call profitable.

I said:

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You're risking $114 to win $90. If there's a greater than 56% chance you'll win high (or low) on the river, you're giving money away by folding.

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In other words, IF you think you can pick up half the pot more than 56% of the time, you should be calling. Is that any clearer?

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OK, next step: The hand range of the opponent. Tight aggressive villain pot raised the button. This usually indicates a decent hand like A2xx, AA, maybe A-3/4? maybe four high cards, maybe with an overpair. Seems like a reasonable hand range.

Next step: Ours odds on the turn. Villain needs a set or a straight to have us in trouble. Against any other hand, including A2 *with* a flush draw, we have odds to correctly call because of the size of the pot. We're crushing AAxx except AA5 and AA2, and we have odds to call against those as well. If villain doesn't have a decent low, or just an A2 low without backup, we have counterfeit outs to 3/4 as well.

What does this all mean? There are very few hands that have us crushed. There are however, a lot of hands that would play the way Villain has, which we either beat of have quite profitable odds to correctly call.

56% is the cutoff. I think we have easily have it against his hand range. This is a judgement call. What hand range do you put him on, taking all streets into consideration?