Re: stars 2/4
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Yeah, and if JJ calls, and he has JJ or a folding hand the vast majority of the time, then it's +EV.
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This isn't accurate. The worse hands that will fold to a bet do not affect the EV of the bet. The EV of the bet only involves the percentage of the time a better hand folds and the percentage of the time a worse hand calls.
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What I was saying is that I think he folds or calls with worse much higher than the % he has AA/KK/TT. In my mind at the time I was envisioning 90% he has JJ/fold and 10% better, so I know he'll call that JJ more than he'll have AA/KK/TT, I was thinking he has JJ 66%, folds 24%, owns 10%.
But now that I read over the thread, I could see TT being sneaky like that. Checking is certainly safest and probably the correct option.
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