Re: Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?
First, Thank you again DeucesUp.
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Note however that these are not these are not optimal bet sizes for this scalp. I'll let you see if you can figure out why. Here's a hint: The above gives you the highest guaranteed profit, but not the highest expected profit. You want to maximize expected profit.
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I think you need to weight your bets more on who is expected to win some % of the time. You center the lines and find what percentage of the time the favorite is expected to win, then you weight your gauranteed bets in accordance with the expected probabilities?
center(155, -145) = 150
So fav is expected to win (or cover) 3 to 2 times or 60%-40%
So you want to portion the gauranteed winnings 60% on the side of the fav. covering?
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