[Qbawler311]

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Let's try another example so you guys can tell me I'm wrong again. More obvious this time (for example sake)

Book1: PHI +7 -110
Book2: CHI -5 +120

Price conversions:
-110 = 10/11 = 90.91%
+120 = 12/10 = 120%

$113 on PHI gives $102.70 on win
$87 on CHI gives $104.40 on win

so you have a gauranteed minimum $2.70 profit.
1.78% average investment on you $200
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

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You are really struggling with some basic math here, are you sure you want to pursue this?

Your minimum profit is not $2.70 in your example. You win $102.7 - 87 = $15.70 if Phi covers and lose $104.40-$113=-$8.60 if Chi covers. You really need to get a handle on this before you go any further, this is simple stuff.





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PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

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As to this question, the Math is simple (though still harder than simple scalp above), you simply multiply the probabilty of a 5, 6 or 7 being the final score by the amount you'll win if those numbers hit (e.g. 6 wins both bets, 5 & 7 win one and push the other, since the bet amounts are different you will have a different outcome on each of 5, 6 & 7).

The trouble is there is no simple way to get the probabilities of landing on 5, 6 or 7 -- there is no mathematical rule you can use. An NBA game is different from NCAABB game, a game between Pho & Sea is different from a game between SA & Mem, a game lined at +2 is different from a game lined at +10, the chances of landing on 1,2 or 3 are different from the chances of 6,7 or 8, a home game for NY is different from an away game for NY, a game back in Dec is different from a game in March etc. The best you can do is use historical data, figure out which games are most similar to the one you're looking at and see how often 5,6 & 7 hit in those games and hope it's close to the same in your game. Craig gave a link above which is a probably about as good as your going to do with out a ton of work.

Good luck.

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Ouch yes, I see how I was very stupid. I am very knew to this. I really appreciate your post, you demonstrated how I was wrong. Plus, after seeing that I am a noob you continued to help.

Thank you