[Josh W]

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You think the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in your hand swings it that much?


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It's obviously close. I mean, you yourself said you changed your mind in the middle of posting. It's close. Close enough that a few percentage points of probability can sway it.

After BK puts in a cap on the flop and leads the turn, I think Stox can rest assured that he (BK) won't fold to a turn raise, so I think Stox raises the turn with a boat.

Thus, I think that BK's biggest fear should be the flush. But how can Stox have a flush? Well, he could have something like A8h (maybe he plays it that way on the flop, I really dunno). Or, he can have a straight draw on the flop that backdoors into a flush.

I won't try to assign percentages to the possible holdings, but remember we need to be ahead 67% of the time to justify a raise (assuming BK calls a threebet, which I think he'd do, but could be wrong). That means, we only need 33% doubt to not raise. There's a chance of a boat (in the 10% range, I guess), and the rest of the doubt lies in the flush. So, I'm saying there's a 25ish% chance of a flush, and a good chunk of that 25% involves the Ten (seems I lied and did try to assign percentages).

Josh

p.s. To answer your question about what I'd do if the raise was on the turn, my answer is I'd call and lead any non-board-pairing river (and call a river raise).