[DeucesUp]

I find international soccer pretty hard to cap for a number of reasons. The national teams don't play a lot a games, most of the games they do play are against the teams in their qualifying groups so there isn't a lot of inter-play between the groups, so accessing strength is tough. When they do play friendlies, often the teams won't be a full strength (heck, the Brazilians usually send a team of 14-year-old girls and manage to win anyway). HFA is so important in qualifying, but it's difficult to back that out to a neutral field. The players play in so many different leagues around the world that it's hard to compare them and determine the strength of a team going player-by-player.


All that said, here's my thoughts:

Brazil - seems to be the class of the field, no doubt. For the most part, they've looked very strong, they have a great line-up and they play a style which I think is successful in the WC format (they require a different defensive strategy which teams will not have a lot of time to impliment/practice during the WC). 3-1 looks about right to me, I wouldn't bet against the Brazilians at 3-1 and at 7-2 or 4-1 they look very interesting.


England/Argentina/Italy/Germany - These seem to be the next tier in terms of odds but I don't really like any of them at current prices. Different strengths/weaknesses and styles but overall these teams all look pretty equal along with a couple of longer shots(see below), and I have a hard time picking between them. Eng/Arg & Italy are all in moderately tough to very tough pools, so none are even a shoe-in to make it to the elimination round. Germany looks the weakest of this group and they've had some struggles, but HFA more than makes up for this and IMO they're in an easier group than the other 3 so if I had to pick, it would be Germany.

Spain/France/Neth/Port. The next tier in terms of odds. IMO, here's where the real value lies. Spain and France belong in the above group. Yes they have their problems and weaknesses, but I think they've got as good a shot as any of the above and at around 13-1 and especially 17-1 for Spain are a far better value. They also both are in very easy groups and should cruise through pool play and once you get to elimination, anything can happen.

Czech Rep / Sweden. Here's my other sleeper. I don't think the Czech rep is getting near the respect they deserve. I really don't see why the Czech's couldn't win this thing. Yes, they've got a very tough group and are a risk not to even make it out of pool play, but this is very good team and may very well beat Italy and come out of pool play as the #1 team. A very nice value at 30-1.

Mexico/USA - This is really a question of how good the North America region is. Mex & US both looked extremely good in qualifying and yet are available at 50-1 even out to 90-1 on the US at some shops. The odds makers are saying the NA region is complete garbage and the impressive results Mex & US have had don't mean anything. True, the US will have it's work cut out just to make out of pool play, but it's not going to take a miracle either. Mexico got a gift in this respect and can already be penciled into the elimination round, probably as the #1 team.

I think both teams look great at these odds, though it's always hard to gage the true value of extreme longshots. I do think that these two teams have tremendous value over other teams offered at similar odds like Australia and Switzerland.