Re: +EV for baseball parlay?
Good point. However, I think we can take my point and maneuver with it a bit.
Say the two teams are close to even (maybe a -120 line or so). If the total is 7.5, we'd expect the fave to score about 4 runs. If the total is 8 or 8.5, we'd expect them to score about 4-4.5 runs. In the 7.5 game, the fave would have to score 5 (1 above expectation) to possibly win. In the 8 or 8.5 game, the fave would have to score 6 (1.5-2 above expectation) to have a chance at winning.
Mind you, I have no data to back any of this up. This is just what my intuition tells me.
Josh
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