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Old 03-24-2006, 06:22 PM
GreekHouse GreekHouse is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Zoidberg...for TWO!!!
Posts: 2,042
Default Re: Sometimes SNGs aren\'t poker: Open-Folding QQ 3-Handed?

OK, here's what I'm doing if I'm the villian.

If you fold, I fold to keep shorty alive. Then I open push next hand because you can't call from the BB. Then, from the BB, if you limp or raise standard I push from BB (again, you cannot call). Now, we're back to the original table position, except with different stacks.

Hero (t2695)
SB (t5975)
BB (t330)

Of course, the above is the situation where Hero simply folds every time, costing him the least amount of money possible. If Hero ever called, standard raised, he'd have less. If this continues, hero will lose 300 chips/orbit to me until he takes a stand.

Given this, open limping is much better for hero (and obviously better than a standard raise since I will be pushing any two), since in that case the chip stacks will look like this one orbit later.

Hero (t2495)
SB (t6075)
BB (t30)

This is clearly a better situation, since BB will be eliminated this hand (this is stars remember, so he doesn't get a showdown). At this point, you can start playing normal HU poker against the big stack.

So obviously Calling >> Folding.

Now, if you instead push this hand, I'm not going to call you with a wide range. Your range here for pushing is very small since you're pushing such a big stack. I can cause you to lose quite a bit of equity if I want to spite call you, but then I lose quite a bit of equity myself. Since I'm not Johnny Beef, I'm not spite calling you here just to cost you equity. From my standpoint, a call is only profitable if it's +cEV to me, so I'm not going to have a hand frequently enough to call you where I would believe it's +cEV for me (I will believe that you're pushing a range like TT+, AK, AQs+) here, so I really need at least QQ to call.

Therefore Pushing >> Calling

QED.

Corollary: Hero should limp/fold the vast majority of his hands here.
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