Re: Sort of Theory Post
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IF he folds to the flop raise (it's too tough to analyze if he ever calls a raise w/ a worse hand, suhc as 45 or A5) - going on the stipulation he calls w/ better folds worse (which I dont agree, but then again you people would all be surprised at what loose calls I can get when I go crazy) he must therefore be "bluffing" 60% of the time.
ON THIS BOARD, since there are basically no semibluffs, he is NOT bluffing 60% of the time!
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I think that the words above of Bobbo's that I put in bold are a key element in determining what is the best play against more aggressive players. If you can in fact get villain to fold a better hand, but not a monster, as in like AJ, then you really have accomplished something with a flop raise. Even if he does call with a marginally better hand, he has to fade big bets on the turn and river if he doesn't improve and wants to see the showdown, which is why he generally won't call if he is tighter as well as aggressive. And this all assumes that you don't always just go into check/calling mode with AK in position on this flop as the preflop raiser, so that he won't know you don't have that.
So I agree with cero that villain's flop lead here is weak, as in a bad A, lower pp than A, or a semi-bluff. And this means you should tend to raise an aggressive player here but not a passive one, including occasionally with air to balance your legit hands. Again with the point that if you can get a marginally better hand to fold you are more right to raise, then raising with 77 yourself in this spot and getting 99 or a weak A to fold has accomplished something very good. The only problem is that if he catches on to such plays when the stacks are deep enough, then you will see him calling your raise and leading out on the turn again more often including with really big and improved hands.
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