[12AX7]

OK, let's see here.

1) Missing 99 times still does not affect the probabilities of the next trial, trial 100. Yes the probability of not seeing a flush in a 100 trials is small. But that's because you have to sum up the probabilities of missing, if I recall basic probabily.

Seriously, the next flip of a coin is always 50/50. 10 heads in a row is a different problem. Perhaps some of the more math literate posters can elaborate? Somewhere in these threads someone did have a great way of explaining this. I just can't recall where it's at.

If you just walked up to the table without having ever seen the previous 99 trials, what would you set the probability at?

2) OK, so the roulette wheel has hit red 10 times in a row... is the wheel "trending"? or is it "due" to come up black? LOL! I knew a lottery fanatic that kept records of florida lottery numbers and played both theories. He'd by one ticket with the most common numbers, and another with the ones that hadn't been seen in a while. LOL! Yet this guy literally had made millions by using moving averages on mutual funds at one time.

As for Roulette, I've debated various money management schemes to see if I could get ahead and push ruin out a far as possible. Seems like it might be doable. But C'mon. All those Wynn casinos were not build by beatable games, right?

The Roulette History Chart is there to cater to both the "trending" and "due" crowds.

3) The longer you continue to play a -EV game, the more of what I call a "statistical deficit" is built up. You may be up now, but a correction is on the way. LOL! The deficit grows with each trial too. Because it's cumulative for every dollar waged. Not the size of your initial bankroll.

Now, I don't really know if I'm a +EV poker player yet, but consider this. Over the last 6 weeks at micros I rebuilt my bankroll from a low of $2.50 to $200. Over a three day period of the Holiday, I got knocked back to $50. Ouch. In the prior six weeks I had not posted a single losing day. Go figure. Was I "trending"? Was I "due" for a loss? LOL! Was it the supposed influx of new sharks because of no rakeback at Party? Was it too many donks drawing out on me? No clue.

However, one theory says, I was correcting back to my expectation, right? To be up $198 at 0.02/0.04 to 0.25/0.50 is a lot of BB's. Most gained in 0.10/0.20. Chances are I was way ahead of where I should've been.

Now I can't say this is a mathematical statement. Moreso rhetorical... But all those Wynn casinos weren't built by spreading +EV games right. Now I'm sure you'll point out 21. But considering that most folks can't master it, or play under bankrolled, and that things like 50% penetration on 6 decks kills counting, I'd say guess Steve Wynn's old saying, "you wanna make money in a casino, own one" is as true today as the day he said it.

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But that doesn't make any sense. The odds of missing it 20 times in a row are very low. Are you telling me that if you miss a flush draw 99 times in a row by some crazy strike of probality, on the 100th time its the same chance? If that was true, than probability wouldn't work. I used to be a roulette player in the casino, I won some, and lost some, but overall I'm up. The reason why is I knew to only bet colors, and only bet a color that hadn't come up in a while, because the odds of red not coming up 10 times in a row are low. Why do you think they have a history chart at the tables?

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