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this may sound retarded to you but heres my shot.

could u maybe give an x for the "long run luck factor". x=x for everyone yadda yadda thats fine in the infinately long run

i think when people say zomg long run 1.4million hands fgators sucks lolz, and that whatever happens in the "long run" must be all skill is not entirely accurate. i dont think the long run of poker can rightfully be obtained.

if someone goes on for a sick heater that lasts 10k hands, can u honestly tell me that the "luck" will even out over 1.4 million hands...i do not buy into that

p.s. im not fgators

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First of all, in one way I agree with you, but you are leaving half of the equation out....

Consider a 7 days week. You are the example, each day of the week, you have a rating of luck from -10 to +10. These are just random #s but I'm doing this for a reason. M-1 T+7 W-9 Th+10 F+6 S-2 Su+7. Just like in poker, some days in life you have more bad luck than good luck (as it pertains to your goals) and vice versa.

The idea behind looking at the affect of luck in the long run and short term is this. In the short term, the "spread" of that weeks lucky that I offered to you is highly impacted by the luck of each day. Over the course of say, 52 weeks however, the luck of each day affects the overall outcome very little. Also, if you were to look at the course of a lifetime, each one of the whole 7 day weeks would make very little independent impact on the overall outcome. Considering that over infinity, each players "luck" factor is exactly even (please point out this sentence with evidence otherwise if you disagree), you have to recognize that both bad AND good luck occur with the same frequency.

That being said.....we don't play over the course of infinity. We play within a certain time restraint. That means, that you are correct, there is undoubtedly, at the end of 2 separate poker players lives, going to be a difference in the outcome due to luck.

The point here is, while it is difficult if not impossible to determine a set determinant between the "short" term and the "long" term, the factor that luck has on poker (and IMO life) decreases as time goes on and becomes closer to neutral.

Skill however, reacts much differently than luck, over time.

Nice post btw, good to see some through process in NVG.