[seke2]

Could someone demonstrate how mathematically, laying down AA is right there? You've convinced me that this JJ laydown makes sense, but I can't wrap my brain around the math for this to be an AA fold.

Let's say you have a 99% chance of getting a seat if you just post and fold. If you go all in with AA and lose the hand, you still have at least an average number of chips, and could still post/fold enough orbits to have a 95% chance of going in. Just some complete hypotheticals, since we don't know the sizes of the stacks at the other tables in this particular instance.

The 80 (or better)% chance of ending the tournament immediately if AA holds up doesn't make up for the perhaps 5% less chance of winning if AA gets cracked?