[thing85]

I think this really comes down to a mathematical EV problem because it's too close to analyze qualitatively. There are several variable we'd need to define, such as specific probabilities to the different parts of his range and the probability that he calls/raises/folds each piece of the range for the various actions I can take (and bet sizes). In the end, these would be estimates at best.

This fairly long discussion leads me to believe that the solution here is so close that either shoving on the turn or waiting until the river probably have similar expected values, so either move probably isn't too far off from the mathematically correct play. If someone wants to take a shot at estimating these %'s and coming up with a rough EV calculation for each play, that would be interesting to see.

Oh Pokey, where art thou...