Re: Trend vs. regression
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In other words, I'm pretty sure that saying a team is 8-2 against the spread is about as useful as saying they have blue uniforms for purposes of predicting their future performance.
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It does show that they have either been undervalued or have played over expectation 8 times out of their last 10 games. That does mean something. However, it does not help you in the matchup yet to be played. You still need to determine whether they are STILL being undervalued or not. In some cases Vegas/Public catches up. In other cases they don't.
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