Re: High Stakes Poker thread (11/5 - 500k buyin - Spoilers expected)
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Even if Gold thinks Doyle has a pair with the nut flush draw, what kind of hand can Gold possible have? Are you saying here is that Gold is prepared to play for his entire stack with any hand that is better than a pair of aces with the nut flush draw?
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no.. what i am saying is that gold believes he has the best hand at that moment. i is aware that his flush is vulnerable. he wants to raise doyle an amount that makes it harder for doyle to call, yet if doyle calls he must get lucky to beat his made flush. the way i see it, gold did not want doyle to call his raise. he wanted the fold and to take down the pot.
how is this so hard to understand.. you've never made a similar bet?
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He is a fish but not a complete idiot. Gold thought he was super-strong and made it very obvious - he would not feel that way with a pair or trips even, not with 3 spades on the board in a multi-way pot.
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i agree. yet he did not want to simply call doyle, or min raise him (or a little more like 75k). if he had the nut flush he would have surely done one of these things.
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In my mind Doyle had the choice to make a marginal call, risking his entire stack or wait for a better spot.
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i believe that you are right. yet, i think that if doyle had taken more time (if it is to believed that there wasn't a chunk of time edited out of the broadcast where doyle actually did spend some time thinking) that he may have reasoned it out that gold was not very strong with his raise.
i also acknowledge that there are times that you sit with a player and you read him as being much stronger than he actually is. i will reiterate... i do not find great fault with doyle's fold here.
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I suspect it is because of this kind of reasoning Doyle has had such long-term success. If you push to hard in those marginal spots the variance can break you.
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the man says he's been broke more than 100 times in his career. i don't think you or i have anywhere near the knowledge of variance that doyle has. we are discussing a hand that we did not play. it's impossible to know what you or i (anyone) would have done when the action came to us after jamie raised. many people fail to realize that when commenting on hands viewed on television.
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