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Old 01-03-2006, 09:30 PM
eternalnewbie eternalnewbie is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 23
Default Re: Trend vs. regression

Not a statistics expert, but I'm pretty sure that something saying that a team is 8-2 against the spread, statistically speaking, has absolutely no predictive ability one way or the other. Need an N larger than 10 I think.

In other words, I'm pretty sure that saying a team is 8-2 against the spread is about as useful as saying they have blue uniforms for purposes of predicting their future performance.

A lot of the posters here understand probabilities much better than me, though, so maybe they'll correct me if I'm wrong.
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