[kyro]

My early game plays for the week.

Going official now. Got money deposited. I plan on playing a lot of games because I really want to see how this system works and it's far less fun to just watch the system without having anything invested. So best of luck to me!

Bengals +4.0 (-110)
Risk 1u to win .91u

Bah. Wanted this at +4.5. There is no explanation for the Ravens being favored by more than 3, except that Cinci is 2-6 and Baltimore is 4-4. But MOV and DVOA both have Cinci as the better team, and just compare the common games between them. This should probably be Cinci +2, but I'll take the 2 point gift.

23-21 Ravens

Steelers -9.5 (-110)
Risk 1u to win .91u

I think this is a fair line with the exception of two things.

1) Pittsburgh is 4-0 at home, with no win being less than 21 points.

2) Cleveland's strength is in its offense, particularly it's passing offense. Well, Pitt's strength is its defense, particularly its pass defense, leading the league in ypg, and ypa. I like the Browns, but not in this game.

35-17 Stillers

Vikings +6 (-110)
Risk 1u to win .91u

Green Bay is ranked 7th in overall DVOA. Quick, who's ranked 8th?

This is actually one of the most off lines when compared with DVOA. But the Packers match up pretty well with Minnesota, being strong at rush defense and pass offense. Still, 6 points is far too much to give a team that actually isn't that much better than its divisional opponent.

27-24 Packers

Dolphins -3 (-110)
Risk 1u to win .91

This. Is. Jeopardy!

This team has 4 losses by exactly 3 points, including an overtime loss IN Washington. Any thoughts? The answer is the Miami Dolphins.

Playing at home hasn't been very pretty, and the 35-17 loss vs the Raiders is a little disconcerting, but when you look at their schedule and the results, the Oakland game is the only one that really makes you cringe. Jesse Chatman isn't Ronnie Brown, and Cleo Lemon isn't Trent Green, but they haven't been terrible. I expect an old, mature (and now rested) defense to come out and play some football. Dolphins win their first of the year.

17-16 Dolphins

Bills/Dolphins U41 (-110)
Risk 1u to win .91

As I said before, 3 of Buffalo's 8 games have hit 41. Their opponents? Pats/Boys/Bengals. The Dolphins don't have that same type of offense, and I believe their D plays well enough to keep the total down.

YTD 0-0-0
+0u