[JMP300z]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would expect to see a set or two pair here ~75% of the time.

I think this is an easy muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys do realize that he has to call $1600 into a final pot (after call) of $4920, right? That's ~32.5% of the pot.

If he has a set only, he would need to call $1451 or less. But Hero said, that he felt like 2 pr were in his range, and weighted them more heavily than a set. But, even if we give them (2p/set) normal distribution, Hero is ~36.4% against Villain, and now a call is correct.

Disclaimer: I do not agree with how Hero played the hand, and likely would have just folded the flop. I also think a set is much more likely, but Hero was there, and he had the read, so thats what we have to go with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay player,

Thanks for the analysis, in the future just say 3300-1600 or 2-1 and not mess with all the percentages.

-JP