[madnak]

You're pulling this out of nowhere. Do you have anything other than personal intuitition to back up these claims? What if you're wrong about the ten percent figure you quote, and the true figure is actually twenty percent? Would that tip the scales? Do you have any rational process according to which you've reached your conclusion? If, as you admit, "it is close," then how can you have a high level of confidence in your estimate?

I think your main problem is that you hugely underestimate the impact of war and disease, and you hugely overestimate the impact of existential distress. And of course I think you ridiculously underestimate the ease with which people can get over this problem. I'd lay 2:1 that within 20 years at least 60% of the prior theists would have regained their level of satisfaction.

And the long term is just as important as the short term.