[meleader2]

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i feel dumb asking this, but [censored] it:

i have 9 outs with a flush draw on the flop. apparently with 9 outs i have 20% equity. y is it 1/4 to hit though? is that with 2 cards?

so if that's the case, by the turn, if i ahven't hit it yet i still ahve 9 outs, so it should be 1/5 to hit the river. correct?

also, by outs, can someone list off my equity %'s? also does it change per street?

2 cards to come:

6 outs = 12.5%
9 outs = 20%, etc


1 card to come: (?)

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Rule of 2 and 4:

2 cards to come - Your equity is your number of outs times 4. So 9 outs on the flop means you have about 9*4 = 36% equity in the pot (assuming you go to showdown).

1 card to come - Your equity is your number of outs times 2. So 9 outs on the turn gives you 9*2 = 18% to hit on the river.

You can use the 2 rule on the flop instead of the 4 rule if you think your reverse implied odds are high (e.g. your villain will bet big into you on the turn and you don't want to commit just yet).

You need to adjust your equity up slightly when you have a small number of outs, e.g. if you have 2 outs on the turn your equity isn't 2*2 = 4%, but probably more like 7-8% or so.

You also need to adjust down slightly if you have a large number of outs, e.g. you have 13 outs on the flop your equity isn't 13*4 = 52%, but more like 48-49%.

Of course, the difference between 52% and 49% isn't substantial, and the difference between 4% and 7% also isn't substantial. Using the 2 and 4 rule to estimate your equity is close enough in almost all real-world situations.

You have to remember to discount your outs based on your opponent's range, cards you suspect are no longer in play, and redraw possibilities for your opponent (e.g. you make a flush on a paired board, he has a chance of filling up).

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printed. thank you.