Trend vs. regression
I struggle with this issue when betting any sport -- when there's a stat indicating that "team X is 8-2 in their last 10 games ATS," couldn't this stat be used to justify betting either way? I mean, it indicates X is more than likely to cover, but at the same time it's also likely that X's ability to cover isn't really 80% and will probably regress towards a more reasonable figure.
How do y'all decide what to do with a "trend" statistic? I'm a relative noob at sports betting and don't really know how to react sometimes.
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