[AWoodside]

I think there is a ton of noise and, if we're assuming that either condition would be stable once arrived at, the best you can do is try to estimate probabilities. On a galactic/universal scale it seems like, from an evolutionary point of view, the AC scenario wins out because when you get to the uber-totalitarian state you pretty much stifle all further technological progress, even if you've reached a locally stable point. The free societies will continue to progress and ultimately win out, not very reassuring given my human-centric point of view though.

Keeping it continuous though seems like a pretty severe restriction. I don't mean to dodge your question, but it's a hard question! I've been saying for years that we're going to be immortal or extinct as a species by the year 2080. I think functional extinction is much more likely than massive state in the long run, and that extinction is probably a 2 to 1 favorite over immortality.